this post was submitted on 23 Aug 2025
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Hurling ordure at the TREACLES, especially those closely related to LessWrong.
AI-Industrial-Complex grift is fine as long as it sufficiently relates to the AI doom from the TREACLES. (Though TechTakes may be more suitable.)
This is sneer club, not debate club. Unless it's amusing debate.
[Especially don't debate the race scientists, if any sneak in - we ban and delete them as unsuitable for the server.]
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some UN-associated ACM talk I was listening to recently had someone cite a number at (iirc) ~~$1.5tn total estimated investment~~ $800b[0]. haven't gotten to fact-check it but there's a number of parts of that talk I wish to write up and make more known
one of the people in it made some entirely AGI-pilled comments, and it's quite concerning
this talk; looks like video is finally up on youtube too (at the time I yanked it by pcap-ing a zoom playout session - turns out zoom recordings are hella aggressive about not being shared)
the question I asked was:
response is about here
[0] edited for correctness; forget where I saw the >$1.5t number
Yeah a new form of apologism that I started seeing online is “this isn’t a bubble! Nobody expects an AGI, its just Sam Altman, it will all pay off nicely from 20 million software developers worldwide spending a few grand a year each”.
Which is next level idiotic, besides the numbers just not adding up. There’s only so much open source to plagiarize. It is a very niche activity! It’ll plateau and then a few months later tiny single GPU models catch up to this river boiling shit.
The answer to that has always been the singularity bullshit where the biggest models just keep staying ahead by such a large factor nobody uses the small ones.
hearing him respond like that in real time and carefully avoiding the point makes clear the attraction of ChatGPT