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this post was submitted on 08 Jul 2023
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Ukraine
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It's baffling how shortsighted it was to blow up the damn. Unless the Russians know that they are losing and want to make sure that life in the liberated areas will remain terrible. Here's to hoping a swift end to the war and lot of support for rebuilding.
Putin considers Ukrainians practically Russian. Cut from the same cloth. So, if Ukraine were allowed to prosper under Democratic govenment, it's a real problem for him.
He has spent decades spreading propaganda throughout Russia that the West is actually a misarable place, actually less "free" than Russia in absolute terms, and that he's providing Russia the best that is possible for Russians, and that there's something fundamentally different about being Russian that means means democracy could never work.
A free and prospering Ukraine throws a wrench in all that. If people who are practically Russian are experiancing the benefits of western democracy and they actually like it--if Russians can visit family there and experiance it themselves, then why the hell do they tolerate getting the scraps from Putin and his oligarchs? It'll all crash down.
So, his inital goal might be to take Crimea and laugh and show Ukraine is weak. He might even invaded and install his own puppet government. But creating absolute chaos and misery in Ukraine is good enough, too.
Building back a stronger Ukraine is of utmost impotance, not just for Ukraine, but for your average Russians, too.
I agree but doesn't that just underline the stupidity of blowing up Kakhovka Dam or the fact that it was done to prepare for a imminent defeat?
Southern Ukraine and Crimea will become economical disasters because of this and if Russia was able to control them, they'd only have strategic value against Ukraine and the Black Sea region. Monetarily, they will be a black hole for years to come and living there won't be easy for the civilians.
So it only really makes sense to destroy the area in case you know you are about to lose it. Of course that is to presuppose that the decision was well planned in advance rather than based on feeling and miscalculations, which could very well be the case. The incompetence at play here is amazing, so it's very possible no one really wanted catastrophe on this level, but idiotic decision were made on whim or based on biased data.
Whatever the case, let's hope Ukraine prevails!