this post was submitted on 07 Oct 2025
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GenZedong
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Honestly i don't know. But at this moment a negotiated solution seems farther away than ever. Which means that it will have to be fought to its inevitable conclusion. What that will look like depends on how much longer the Ukrainians are willing to allow themselves to be sacrificed by the Nazi junta in Kiev and the deranged dictator Zelensky. The longer it goes on the more territory Russia will take. And I'm not just talking about the four new Russian regions. Those are already non-negotiable.
As far as what happens in Ukraine, nothing is off the table right now. There may be a coup at some point or they might just fight until the AFU completely collapses. That depends entirely on how successfully the Zelensky clique can suppress the internal opposition. Mind you, whoever ends up in power after a coup would still be a fascist, because there are only fascists left in Ukraine who have the influence and power to do it. It's a lot of fash on fash infighting there at the moment.
At some point the West (specifically the Europeans) may become so desperate that they try to insert troops into Ukraine to keep a rump NATO aligned state alive, but the Russians have already said they will not tolerate that and will just strike any foreign troops on Ukrainian soil. At the moment the Russians seem confident and determined that they will get what they want one way or another. The only kind of government that Russia will tolerate on Ukrainian soil is one that is not hostile to Russia.
The only question is whether any Ukrainian state survives at all. There are hardliners in Russia that consider it safer to just do away with the whole thing, but the moderate (and i would say almost pathologically liberal) faction currently dominant in the Kremlin doesn't want that. They want to keep some form of Ukrainian state because it's easier for Russia that way. Just so long as it's not NATO aligned. I can certainly understand that viewpoint. But things can always change...
Long story short, i personally rate the likelihood of a Korean scenario very low right now. That would require a stalemate, but despite what the western media likes to claim, there just isn't one at the moment. In fact the longer this goes on the weaker Ukraine gets and the stronger the Russians become. The rate of disintegration of the AFU will accelerate and with it the pace of the Russian advance. We are already seeing this. They just don't have the reserves anymore to put out every fire at once.
The most interesting scenario, the implications of which I haven't really seen discussed much, is that Russia absorbs everything aside from a rump western Ukraine where anti-Russian sentiment is the strongest. That would become Europe's problem, and since it wouldn't be a viable state economically, that would mean Europe having to dump billions into propping it up. If Europe allows it to collapse then there will be a refugee crisis compounding the current economic disaster.
From Russian perspective, Ukraine isn't the root problem, it's just a tool that NATO is using to fight them. So, their goal has to be to neutralize NATO as a threat. Putting stress on the economy in Europe seems like the logical way to go about it. We're already seeing a huge political crisis unfolding with the neoliberal centre collapsing, and that's creating political opportunities for Russia to exploit. I'm sure I thought of this, it must've been gamed by Russian planners as well.