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What [do you think] will Russian victory in the ukraine actually look like? (lemmygrad.ml)

submitted 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) by King_Simp@lemmygrad.ml to c/genzedong@lemmygrad.ml

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I know no one here is part of the Russian government, so I'm not expecting concrete answers here.

What I'm asking is simply what will happen if [well, when, at this point] The Ukraine ends up...falling, per se?

That's a question in of itself really. Will Ukraine fight until the AFU collapses? Will there be a coup? Would a pro russian or neutral ukraine be established across all of what is currently the Ukraine, or will there be an attempt to make a "taiwan-ified" state in the west?

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[–] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 5 points 2 days ago

The most interesting scenario, the implications of which I haven't really seen discussed much, is that Russia absorbs everything aside from a rump western Ukraine where anti-Russian sentiment is the strongest. That would become Europe's problem, and since it wouldn't be a viable state economically, that would mean Europe having to dump billions into propping it up. If Europe allows it to collapse then there will be a refugee crisis compounding the current economic disaster.

From Russian perspective, Ukraine isn't the root problem, it's just a tool that NATO is using to fight them. So, their goal has to be to neutralize NATO as a threat. Putting stress on the economy in Europe seems like the logical way to go about it. We're already seeing a huge political crisis unfolding with the neoliberal centre collapsing, and that's creating political opportunities for Russia to exploit. I'm sure I thought of this, it must've been gamed by Russian planners as well.