GenZedong

The AFU collapsing seems like the more probable scenario because the extreme right wing is the main political force in Ukraine right now. So, even if Zelensky were removed, it's almost certain he'd be replaced by somebody who'd continue the war. The nationalist battalions being broken will end the war, however.

The most likely scenario, in my opinion, is that Russia will run referendums in all the oblasts that are pro-Russian or neutral and absorb them. Then, they're going to leave a rump western Ukraine that's not going to be viable as a problem for the west to deal with. It's going to be a huge economic burden on Europe because if it's allowed to fail, that will result in a massive refugee crisis at a time when the European economy is hanging by a thread. And the alternative is to keep pouring money in to prop it up, making it an economic black hole. It's also possible that Poland, Hungary, and Romania decide to carve up what's left of Ukraine.

Will Ukraine fight until the AFU collapses?

Most likely.

Will there be a coup?

Like, a pro-Russian one? Most unlikely.

Would a pro russian or neutral ukraine be established across all of what is currently the Ukraine, or will there be an attempt to make a “taiwan-ified” state in the west?

Strategically speaking, Russia needs the most industrialized regions and the entire shoreline. Demilitarization of the rest too. Which way what remains of "independent" Ukraine leans doesn't matter a lot at that point, only that it remains. But it might be better for Russia, if it's westward, so that Russia doesn't have to rebuild at least that. Neutral status on paper though.

Which way what remains of "independent" Ukraine leans doesn't matter a lot at that point, only that it remains.

I should clarify. That's because the Russian government is clearly trying to do it "right". SMO isn't breaking international law, which is why there aren't any sanctions, like, UN ones, only unilateral restrictions from individual countries(which are, ironically, illegal). Annexation of Ukraine wasn't in the declared goals at any point. And leaving it be, albeit demilitarized, would be the final nail in the coffin of already ridiculous genocide allegations. Good for propaganda in a different way too. Independent Ukraine is yet another entity people in the West that have a good idea of what's going on can point at as an example of NATO using up it's supposes allies and leaving them the worse for wear, whereas annexing the entire thing just adds to the rUsSiAn ImPeRiAlIsT cOnQuErErS narrative, even if Ukraine asks for it till the end.

Russia should advance the front until they cut off Ukraine entirely from the Black Sea. That should ensure Ukraine becomes bigger, shittier Kosovo.

Once there, Russia should also join up with Transnistria (like how they already border Abkhazia and South Ossetia) to prevent Moldova from invading it at NATO's orders.

It's difficult to say right now exactly what will happen, but all that's for certain is that the Ukrainian state as we know it has no future. Drowning in debt, depopulation, and mass privatization - the entire country being sold off to the highest bidder already, piece by piece. It's a tool for war profiteering of NATO and the broader US empire, to be discarded when it can no longer be used, and initially intended to be a tool to destabilize an adversary of Washington and Brussels, Russia, through the Maidan coup in 2014 which has failed miserably - as did a similar "escapade" proving Western incompetence in Afghanistan. A cog in the forever war machine that might serve as one of their final bastions of hope for the rotting corpse that is Western unipolarity.

Ukraine and its NATO puppet masters are facing precarity and desperation more than ever before if we speak of so-called "victory" (tbh a term that becomes vague if the entire dialectic of prolonged profiteering isn't omitted. "Winning" for the bourgeoisie can just as well mean profit maximization, obviously, which they're achieving), with Ukraine now resorting to kidnappings of random civilians on the streets for enforced draft. Russia has practically achieved most of its primary goals, and has de facto annexed and liberated eastern regions which are undergoing rapid urban renewal and restoration of vital infrastructure by Russia, gradually leading to better living standards than they ever saw under the decay and stagnation offered by Ukraine. This, combined with an end to linguistic repression (most of them are Russian native speakers), will undoubtedly be a PR boost for Moscow from the inhabitants too. Though an end to the entire proxy war is not something Russia nor Zelensky's Neo-Nazi comprador regime in Kiev can at all achieve on their own - it all rests on the core beneficiaries who orchestrated this entire ordeal to begin with: Washington and Brussels. Comprador Zelensky acts on their behalf, as we all know. With recent developments, such as the seizure of Russian assets for redistribution towards the Ukrainian war machine by Europe, and the new wave of Russophobic fearmongering campaigns in Europe intended to manufacture consent for continued war (surrounding all the drone nonsense in particular), the writing is already on the wall. "Until the last Ukrainian" isn't an outdated phrase to use.

Putting the US aside here, its European vassals, to me at least, seem really interested in prolonging this conflict - moreso than their masters in Washington. What comes to mind is Europe's own military industrial complex which has become an even bigger topic of debate after Trump was elected (noo big daddy America don't you remember the Marshall Plan?!), and this is just a personal take but I guess Ukraine can serve as a testing ground for Europe's militarization project - it'll drive massive profits, serve to manufacture consent for further welfare austerity against the still highly liberal European working class, and allow Europe to develop repressive tools and intelligence which it could hypothetically turn inwards once the contradictions of capitalism in the EU become so dire that its ruling class needs to resort to fascism to prevent mass left-wing working class uprisings as the multipolar world order rises year after year, burying Western hegemony and hacking away at their beloved imperialist superprofits.

The best answer I can provide is that this ugly proxy war will continue for at least a few more years, until NATO will be forced into admitting defeat and signing a peace treaty with Russia ("forced" how exactly? Time will tell). De jure Russian annexation of the eastern territories will certainly happen, and what will be left of Ukraine is a debt-riddled rump statelet under short-term NATO occupation, reduced in size possibly even only to the Ukrainian speaking regions of the west(?) surviving on EU grants with a Zelensky-like figurehead in power if not a pseudo-neutral comprador figure, as we have to consider that Russia would only accept a neutral state, rightfully so. Azov and its ilk might see a fate similar to other extremist proxies that were once useful to the US empire, such as al-Qaeda, Taliban and ISIS. They might even seize the rump state within no time, or be dealt with by Russia. But this is all only the tip of the ice berg, there's no knowing what further developments could take place.

Honestly i don't know. But at this moment a negotiated solution seems farther away than ever. Which means that it will have to be fought to its inevitable conclusion. What that will look like depends on how much longer the Ukrainians are willing to allow themselves to be sacrificed by the Nazi junta in Kiev and the deranged dictator Zelensky. The longer it goes on the more territory Russia will take. And I'm not just talking about the four new Russian regions. Those are already non-negotiable.

As far as what happens in Ukraine, nothing is off the table right now. There may be a coup at some point or they might just fight until the AFU completely collapses. That depends entirely on how successfully the Zelensky clique can suppress the internal opposition. Mind you, whoever ends up in power after a coup would still be a fascist, because there are only fascists left in Ukraine who have the influence and power to do it. It's a lot of fash on fash infighting there at the moment.

At some point the West (specifically the Europeans) may become so desperate that they try to insert troops into Ukraine to keep a rump NATO aligned state alive, but the Russians have already said they will not tolerate that and will just strike any foreign troops on Ukrainian soil. At the moment the Russians seem confident and determined that they will get what they want one way or another. The only kind of government that Russia will tolerate on Ukrainian soil is one that is not hostile to Russia.

The only question is whether any Ukrainian state survives at all. There are hardliners in Russia that consider it safer to just do away with the whole thing, but the moderate (and i would say almost pathologically liberal) faction currently dominant in the Kremlin doesn't want that. They want to keep some form of Ukrainian state because it's easier for Russia that way. Just so long as it's not NATO aligned. I can certainly understand that viewpoint. But things can always change...

Long story short, i personally rate the likelihood of a Korean scenario very low right now. That would require a stalemate, but despite what the western media likes to claim, there just isn't one at the moment. In fact the longer this goes on the weaker Ukraine gets and the stronger the Russians become. The rate of disintegration of the AFU will accelerate and with it the pace of the Russian advance. We are already seeing this. They just don't have the reserves anymore to put out every fire at once.

I'm getting to the point where I don't see an end to the war until after usa and China have exchanged nukes. The Treaty of Versailles will look like minor changes to geopolitical landscape by the time there is peace in Ukraine.

I hope for the best - integration of russian-speaking eastern Ukraine and creation of independent Union State member in western