this post was submitted on 07 Oct 2025
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GenZedong
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The AFU collapsing seems like the more probable scenario because the extreme right wing is the main political force in Ukraine right now. So, even if Zelensky were removed, it's almost certain he'd be replaced by somebody who'd continue the war. The nationalist battalions being broken will end the war, however.
The most likely scenario, in my opinion, is that Russia will run referendums in all the oblasts that are pro-Russian or neutral and absorb them. Then, they're going to leave a rump western Ukraine that's not going to be viable as a problem for the west to deal with. It's going to be a huge economic burden on Europe because if it's allowed to fail, that will result in a massive refugee crisis at a time when the European economy is hanging by a thread. And the alternative is to keep pouring money in to prop it up, making it an economic black hole. It's also possible that Poland, Hungary, and Romania decide to carve up what's left of Ukraine.
I agree with most points but I don't think allowing a West Ukrainian rump state to still join the EU and NATO is a palatable settlement for Russia. If this state was left to its own devices it'd just be waiting for a second war.
I think the best-case scenario for Russia would be to negotiate a joint appointed government for the western half for a few years before allowing elections. That'd take a total victory to be able to demand, so a more likely middle ground is a permanent ceasefire that would provide justification to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO with the "can't join while at war" article.
I think it'd take a major colapse European Union core states for Russia to ever be able to demilitarise that border safely.
Oh yeah I agree, NATO is absolutely off the table and likely EU membership as well at this point given that EU is becoming more of a military alliance at this point. I also wouldn't rule out total victory, once the AFU starts collapsing then there's really not going to be any way to reverse that. At that point, Russia can dictate whatever terms it wants. I really can't imagine Russia settling for any sort of a ceasefire, they're going to finish this decisively.
I also don't really see the EU being able to do much here. They can pump money into Ukraine, but they can't solve the manpower problem or provide ammunition in volumes that would remotely make a difference. The US is needed to keep the war going, and even the US industry isn't keeping up anymore now that the existing stocks have run down.
The collapse of the EU core states shouldn't be ruled out either given how things are going in UK, Germany, and France right now. I actually wrote about this in some detail recently. https://dialecticaldispatches.substack.com/p/the-terminal-crisis-of-european-neoliberalism
Could you see Belarus taking some parts of northern Ukraine in that last scenario?
I mean Belarus and Russia form a union state now, so I don't know if the distinction would be meaningful here.