this post was submitted on 07 Oct 2025
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GenZedong
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I agree with most points but I don't think allowing a West Ukrainian rump state to still join the EU and NATO is a palatable settlement for Russia. If this state was left to its own devices it'd just be waiting for a second war.
I think the best-case scenario for Russia would be to negotiate a joint appointed government for the western half for a few years before allowing elections. That'd take a total victory to be able to demand, so a more likely middle ground is a permanent ceasefire that would provide justification to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO with the "can't join while at war" article.
I think it'd take a major colapse European Union core states for Russia to ever be able to demilitarise that border safely.
Oh yeah I agree, NATO is absolutely off the table and likely EU membership as well at this point given that EU is becoming more of a military alliance at this point. I also wouldn't rule out total victory, once the AFU starts collapsing then there's really not going to be any way to reverse that. At that point, Russia can dictate whatever terms it wants. I really can't imagine Russia settling for any sort of a ceasefire, they're going to finish this decisively.
I also don't really see the EU being able to do much here. They can pump money into Ukraine, but they can't solve the manpower problem or provide ammunition in volumes that would remotely make a difference. The US is needed to keep the war going, and even the US industry isn't keeping up anymore now that the existing stocks have run down.
The collapse of the EU core states shouldn't be ruled out either given how things are going in UK, Germany, and France right now. I actually wrote about this in some detail recently. https://dialecticaldispatches.substack.com/p/the-terminal-crisis-of-european-neoliberalism