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What [do you think] will Russian victory in the ukraine actually look like? (lemmygrad.ml)

submitted 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) by King_Simp@lemmygrad.ml to c/genzedong@lemmygrad.ml

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I know no one here is part of the Russian government, so I'm not expecting concrete answers here.

What I'm asking is simply what will happen if [well, when, at this point] The Ukraine ends up...falling, per se?

That's a question in of itself really. Will Ukraine fight until the AFU collapses? Will there be a coup? Would a pro russian or neutral ukraine be established across all of what is currently the Ukraine, or will there be an attempt to make a "taiwan-ified" state in the west?

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[–] Cheburashka@lemmygrad.ml 4 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

Upvoted :)

I get what you’re saying! My approach to this is to carefully craft the narrative so that it can not be used to excuse the war crimes committed by the West. So for example I think BRICS should unilaterally impose sanctions on the US for its war crimes, and I don’t think that should be illegal for this to happen. Even if it means once in a while the US can sanction and isolate itself more on the world stage, whatever.

So the reasoning is, if we say the sanctions on Russia are unilateral and therefore illegal, then wouldn’t we also have to concede that the US can commit a crime and not be subject to unilateral sanctions from China / Russia because the UNSC does not vote in favor of it (bc of US veto)? Adhering to this narrative also benefits in the long term, because the US commits many more crimes than Russia / China and therefore would be subject to the most sanctions under this reasoning.

What are your thoughts on this? Also a disclaimer but I do admit ignorance on the Russo Ukraine conflict so I’m not going to pretend to be an authority here.

(And yeah, sounds like the UN is compromised. I totally agree there.)

[–] EuthanatosMurderhobo@lemmygrad.ml 3 points 1 day ago

My thoughts are that international law is such a mess now that it doesn't matter at all any more. It was selectively disregarded for years by the West, Russia, China and some others have been proving both that it doesn't work as written and that precedents set by the West somehow don't apply to others, and now all we're waiting for is complete breakdown.

I don't know if the UN goes the way of the League of Nations as a result of WWIII or if this breakdown takes some other form, but I also think it's too soon to be developing the next system. The current patient formally isn't six feet under yet and formalities matter with law.