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TBH you sound exactly like Peter Schiff for the last 15 years
The only thing we underestimated is how much of this country the financial industry was willing to destroy to stay solvent. "Too big to fail" was actually "too big to stop." The enshitification of all things in the last decade is what was collectively given up in exchange for US financial solvency. This leaves the US with no products of worth, just propped up businesses that are capable of canabalise other businesses faster than everyone else. The problem is that game of musical chairs ends when there's nothing left to canablise. Look at the mega mergers happening now, and you'll see that there's not many bodies left to eat.
Not very quantitative. Again... can't tell if this is Peter Schiff, Adam Taggart, James Rickards, or any of the others who have predicted the imminent collapse of the USD for the past ~20 years
Not saying you can't be right, just that you're not informative
Maybe describe what would qualify as informative?
I thought describing the hole in the ship making it sink, how that hole is being repaired, and how the supplies to keep repairing it are running low was a pretty informative take on whether there's a hole in the ship or not.
And I don't feel those supplies will stay strong now that literally no one in the world wants to trade with us because of Tariffs.
I mean, as far as informative goes, the scene in Ferris Buellers Day Off where the class sleeps through Ben Steins economics lecture was on how Tariffs were an excellerent that helped cause the Great Depression. Now we're doing that again why exactly?
Can you explain any of the current US trade policies in a way that makes sense?
If you want informative: the people making all the decisions are making the wrong ones without any guardrails or adults for the first time in 100 years of US history. The last time this same thing happened, almost exactly, it was followed by the great depression at the start of Black Monday, when the US stock market collapsed. A collapse we are very likely seeing the start of due to the sudden move towards massive liquidity last week.
All further compounded by massive unemployment, a decrease in the value of the dollar, inflation, and yeah, Tariffs.
Idiots doing all that at once is new. And the last time they did it the same way, the country took a World War 2 to recover.
Quantitative os informative. Are you looking at M3? Default rates? Comparing to prior economic situations?
All I see is like, your opinion, man
YES. I just did that.
https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php
Sure. Those are pretty bad right now too:
Business default rates are now as high as they were in 2008 post crisis.
M3 and defaults are what you see change when the crash is happening by the way, not before. But when it does keep crashing, I sincerely doubt we'll have any real numbers until months or years later seeing as how inflated the last two jobs reports were under Trump.
How about the Buffet index?
One of the men who has become the richest from Wallstreet has spent the last several months and years selling most of his stocks. The Buffet index is one he invented to determine how volilalitle the market is in comparing the US stock market value to GDP.
Basic math says getting a stock market valuation at 100% of our national GDP is impossible, but with the power of decades of defecit spending, we can definitley inflate stock prices above the maximum capacity of what our country is capable of spending in a year. Now to 217%. (The Buffet Index).
Which is why Warren Buffet is selling large portions of his stocks: he thinks there's problems in the markets. Especially when they're valued at more than twice what we can make as a nation in a year. Anything above 100% is basically bullshit made up value.
For all intents and purposes, the market is already crashing like I've said. It's just a matter of how many dead cat bounces we have left.
So I'll finally be able to afford a house?