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this post was submitted on 08 Sep 2023
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Confidently Incorrect
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When people are way too smug about their wrong answer.
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https://mahb.stanford.edu/library-item/fossil-fuels-run/
In figure 1 [4] we show the future energy reserves in billions of oil equivalent, Btoe, as a function of year. While we obliviously use up fossil fuels without taking stock of about what future reserves look like, we should take note of the endpoints shown here. These endpoints are dangerously close: Since our society is so dependent on fossil fuels, it therefore is extremely important for us to know when these fuels will run out according to [4]:
Oil will end by 2052 – 30 years time
Gas will end by 2060 – 40 years time
Coal will last till 2090 – 70 years time
However, according to BP [5], earth has 53 years of oil reserves left at current rate of consumption.
A lot of that extended when we discovered fracking. The industry will keep finding new and more expensive ways to locate and abuse natural oil and gas. I don’t think the world will “run out”, but it will certainly be too expensive for the majority of society. But that’s effectively the same.
When I’m depressed, I think of it like …. We won’t run out, it just gets harder and more expensive to get, BUT we’ve already passed the point where we could recover in the event of civilization-wide catastrophe. We no longer have sufficient recoverable (as a less advanced society) energy sources to rebuild. If we fuck up now, that’s it for humanity
Not just humanity. It might fuck up any other species that could give this civilisation thing a go after we're gone.
I think framing it as fossil fuels will run out in our lifetime, or the lifetime of the next generation stresses the urgency of the situation, and makes it more relatable than saying “fossil fuels will run out by year 20XX”. It feels harder to ignore that way.
I came to the comments looking for a citation on the supply claim so thanks for the link!
Another thing to think of is what it will look like as people grab at those last remaining drops. We already see it in loosening of restrictions to allow fracking, and moving villages and farms to scrape coal out of weaker and weaker deposits. The costs (not paid) of gathering this fuel will only increase and it's already more than many are willing to tolerate, so the exact date of running out doesn't matter at all.
What happens when we run out of fossil fuels? I understand fossil fuels are causing climate change/carbon issues. So why not just good riddance? Maybe I'm having a 'shower moment', but I think the change would force us to move to cleaner energy. Is there any intrinsic value to having pockets of sludge in the earth?
What will happen, is 1000 more years of already changed climate, so that one's not going back all that easily.
Shutting down all fossil fuel use right now, would leave the world with a deficit of energy, meaning daily blackouts for starters, and a fleet of non-functioning cars, trucks, trains, ships, and planes, with some industries getting severely crippled (cement, steel, aluminum production, or anything using electroplating processes).
We're already being forced to move to cleaner energy sources, because the high quality carbon and oil deposits are already gone; what's left, is low quality stuff that's more expensive to extract and less energy efficient. So a switch to renewables and nuclear it is for the foreseeable future.
Other than not having it floating all around... not really. It's likely going to get extracted until it stops being profitable, which is for a long time.
There will always be oli, gas, and coal:
Particularly oil, will stop getting used as fuel way before it "runs out", it's too important for producing plastics and other oil derivates.