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Ukraine Situation Report: Breakthrough At Russia's Second Defensive Line
(www.thedrive.com)
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this post was submitted on 08 Sep 2023
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Do we know how many lines there are?
I know it should get easier through each one as the first is most fortified followed by second etc, but at some point they should just be into unfortified areas?
Apparently 3 lines.
But rumors seem to be that the 1st line was where the Russians put most of their effort into. The fact that the 2nd line of defense might already have a breakthrough proves this rumor.
The 3rd line of defense may be worse defended than even the 2nd line. So Russians may be failing at elastic defense (the 2nd and 3rd lines are supposed to be harder to take, because you can move troops and "react" to how the enemy works vs the 1st line). So this is a very promising development, if the lines get "easier" instead of "harder" to breakthrough, then the 2nd and 3rd lines almost don't count at all.
Satellite photos showed the 2nd and 3rd lines were massively more fortified. Huge anti-tank ditches, concrete bunkers, millions of dragon's teeth, etc. The first line was trenches and minefields.
Commentators thought the 2nd and 3rd lines would be the true challenge because that would be true for a Western army with air superiority. Minefields basically don't matter to nations that can park an instant air superiority boat off the coast of anywhere and just blast anywhere their mechanised infantry want to cross.
We thought the counteroffensive was going slowly because the Ukrainians just sucked at their jobs. Turns out it's because they were doing minesweeping by hand, with infantry, at night - because the British minesweepers they were given either sucked or, again, relied on the assumption of air superiority.
Now that it's a stand up fight again, lo and behold, they are making quick work of the unmotivated, hungry, poorly paid Russian conscripts - who are pretty much all that's left after Shoigu got everyone competent killed in the farcical invasion.
Yeah. I heard 60% of resources went into the first line, even split for the other two.
You heard? Oh ok. Not trying to be a dick but it can be really amusing the way this war is talked about. Everybody knows all the details, everybody's a strategist.
That 60/20/20 split for the three main defensive lines was an Ukrainian military assessment when the offensive began...
Most likely russia calculated that surviving 1st liners would reinforce the 2nd line and the more elite reserve troops would counter attack when possible.
Lots of running away dropping weapons instead of organized controlled retreats russians are now known to be able to do. Maybe the competent commanders are really purged again.
Fair enough, there's propaganda everywhere and I'm just some random person (or dog?) on the Internet. But hey, I don't remember where I hear every single thing, it is what it is.
Their uncle just works at Nintendo
It was a commentary made by a ukranian official I think. But it was repeated by people that report on front line status which is where I heard it. How true is it however? Not sure.
I heard that from the ISW.
I'm rather sure a UA military official told that to a reputable international news organization. Can't recall exactly which.
In the article it states they predict that 80% went into the first line, but the bulk of reinforcements are at the 3rd line
If you go to https://deepstatemap.live/en and select the little "castle" icon, the site will display all their defensive positions based on recent satellite data.
That's super cool, but I was thinking more like tenches and minefields or hardended defenses.
But troop deployments and density would also indicate fortifications
Edit: castle icon didn't work properly on mobile, I see it now on web
As they said, if you click the castle tower icon, it will enable lines of hardened defenses.
Ya I edited and replied. It wasn't working for me on mobile
Works on Firefox mobile on android.
Oh, nevermind that castle icon didn't work properly on mobile. I see the defenses now on web.
Works for me just fine (iPhone, Safari)
Huh. If you click at the insignia at Kyiv an aircraft will appear that will bomb any unit you select on the map.
Yeah, I've seen that too. It's an easteregg, the aircraft is a Turkish Bayraktar drone.
I read this every day, decent commentary which is quite cautious and makes an effort to be objective. The maps show all the fortifications:
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-7-2023
It appears there are three