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The US is quietly arming Taiwan to the teeth
(www.bbc.com)
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this post was submitted on 06 Nov 2023
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China cannot simply invade Taiwan in a moment whenever opportunity strikes, it would need significant and obvious preparation and buildup, because they would be contemplating a naval invasion on an almost unprecedented scale.
Russia probably will mobilize however far it's government feels it safely can regardless of China; NATO isn't going to directly invade Russia itself because of it's nuclear arsenal, and isn't terribly likely to actually send a serious number of troops to Ukraine for the same reason, so what it primarily has to worry about is western sanctions and military equipment, and of course the efforts of the Ukrainians themselves, which it already has to deal with regardless of what China is doing.
Israel for it's part is also a nuclear armed state, so actual full scale war being declared upon it by it's neighbors is unlikely. Support for terrorist or resistance groups, sure, maybe some sanctions, and definitely a lot strongly worded condemnation, but I'd very much doubt that the leadership of those countries cares enough about the Palestinians to declare a possibility suicidal war over it, the kind of politicians that lead these countries aren't exactly famous for their empathy.
China has the world's largest Navy currently. That buildup has been happening for at least a decade.
But if they're at war, that ties up a lot of their resources. They're currently using their military strength to claim international waters in the South China Sea. If they get into a war with Taiwan, they can't back that claim up. The countries which are being unfairly denied those waters can assert themselves without fear of significant reprisal, and the US would be more than happy to aid that.
There's really no sensible reason for China to go after Taiwan, it's complete bait. They stand to lose far more than they stand to gain.
I don't mean number of ships, I mean getting the ships and troops into position to use them.
The two small islands close to mainland China will be the proving grounds, I'd expect. Unless he decides to retake the Vladivostok Oblast.
more boats /= capable navy. most of their "navy" is small patrol boats
I'm aware of their current capabilities. The troop transports and carriers are the things that raise my eyebrow.
Israel can only ever hope to use its nuclear arsenal as a deterrant to its neighboring countries. As soon as they use a single nuclear warhead in the region, it will instantaneously lose all the support it still had in the world and beyond that point it is hard to predict what the world will turn into, but it would be ugly.
That's the nature of nukes for any country. But as a deterrent they have proven highly effective