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this post was submitted on 16 Dec 2023
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Thing is, Avdiivka is still slowly falling, similar to Bakhmut which the UAF could not retake in the end. And as long as they make creeping progress, russians don't mind disproportionate casualties. Adding in the fact that GOP may cause the US to completely drop support in 2024, I don't see much to be positive about.
Sure, but they are losing so incredibly much. If they keep doing this for another year, they will have exhausted the massive Soviet vehicle stockpiles. For a few km of gains.
They won't. The west has been meming that russia will run out of something or collapse any moment now... for months now. They will simply push the war economy harder and produce low quality but working vehicles when they start running so low.
They are producing hardly anything and almost everything they have lost was Soviet stock.
Also, nobody assumed they run out of vehicles, we know they have thousands in stock - still even! But at the current rate they will run out of their old stock in a year. That is simple math. I highly doubt that China is going to sell them 100s of tanks per month.
Russia isn't producing as much as they waste for sure, but to say they are hardly producing is a misconception.
They outproduce the west in artillery ammo on their own,for example. . They are also ramping drone production. They are shitty shaheds with virtually nothing great about them, but that does not mean they cannot cause damage by zergrushing a target with them.
Sure, currently they cannot make more than 200ish tanks a year, but if their stockpiles start running low, nothing stops them from mass producing shitty T55-alikes. Would those be useful against a par military? No way in hell. Would they be enough to enable zergrushing like at Avdiivka? Possibly.
At any rate, I wouldn't count on the russian army running dry. Currently the western aid running out is more likely, sadly.
No question, we need to take them seriously. But even the article you linked says they use 5x as many shells as they produce. Where are they going to be with 1/5th the firepower? And if course, if we stop supporting Ukraine they will suffer badly.