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this post was submitted on 28 Dec 2023
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I mean atm, Russia is on the offensive and has gotten some actual results. They conquered Marinka, a 10k population village(before war), which defined the line of conflict, and Avdiivka, a major fortress town that has been holding through the entire war, since 2014, is being threatened with encirclement. Zaluzhnyi even said that they might be forced to abandon it within the next couple months. This would be a significant win for the russians if it happens, much more important than Bakhmut.
The Russians have lost several times now than the population of Avdivka trying to take it. Ukraine shifted to an attritional fight to preserve combat power until they could dismantle Russian fires capabilities which they've been doing quite effectively. If they want to win the war with all their objectives, this is exactly how Ukraine does it. Killing Russians is the best way to get them to leave. Never forget that
I agree with what you are saying but you have to realize that this is partially copium. The Americans had great kill ratio in Vietnam but they still lost.
What happened in the past is in the past. Atm Russia has the initiative and seemingly the will and means to continue. Ukraine's means largely depend on the West.
In EU you have the typical bureaucracy and relactancy of reducing the peace dividends by investing in military equipment production. And thats on top of Hungary sabotaging everything and other major economic issues, like agricultural ukranian products and their effect in EU.
In the US, the republicans are blocking everything and Trump is ahead in the polls.
So it is only natural that with all this uncertainty, Ukraine is reluctant in risking an offensive. If the war ends now, Russia has still gained territory, even if it suffered losses, setbacks and failed to achieve its minimum stated goals(securing Donbass). Though at least they have a landbridge to Crimea so thats something.
Ukraine could lose all their territory and Russia will still lose this war. They already have.
You think this is about territory when it is about energy in Europe.
You think this is Ukraine's Vietnam when it is literally twenty times that for Russia.
Maybe but 500 years from now, who would remember what happened. Eventually things become "it is what it is" and people move on. Borders can last for a long time, especially if one side(the EU) isnt willing to go on the offensive. Strongmen like Putin think of this as weakness, people in the West think of it as "learning from the past".
The USA didn't lose Vietnam because we couldn't win it. We lost it because we weren't trying to win the war, we were trying to occupy Vietnam. This war is totally different, it's a country fighting for it's land.
You could make the same claim for the Russia, that it is considers that land its own and it is fighting for it. Ultimately, yes, this is a different war but my point is that kill ratio isnt always indicative of who is winning.
How many russians see Ukraine as their home vs want it because daddy putin says it belongs to russia?
I mean ultimately, thats how wars are.
The existence of your people or not in an area should not be relevant. If it is relevant, that only leads to genocide and ethnic cleansing. Because noone would want to have a potential casus belli in their land, so they would eliminate all those that would enable something like that.
There are 2 kinds of countries in the world. Those who are satisfied with the current status quo and those who arent. The US, EU, etc are satisfied with the current status quo. Russia, China, Turkey, Venezuela, etc arent. They have issues and they think the current status quo is unfair. And they have irredentist views.
Why would you "freeze" the borders as they are now and not as they were 20 years ago, or 100 years ago or 500 years ago. What i am saying is that India is part of Greece, as per Indo-Greek kingdom of 2000 years ago.
Are...are you making a point that crimea is russian?
Russia spent 10 years in Afghanistan and had 50k reported casualties with 15k reported fatalities. It is regarded as an absolute failure and a shameful loss by Russians.
Russia has been attacking Ukraine for 10 years(2014-present) and has had over 350k casualties with over 40k dead including contractors with the majority happening in less than 2 years.
For context, America was in Afghanistan for 20 years and had under 30k casualties and around 7k dead including allies and contractors. We consider it a failure holistically. America was in Vietnam for 20 years and had under 60k deaths and it was an absolute and shameful failure.
Only a Russian troll could consider the war to be anything but a failure for Russia that has weakened itself as a country and a military in jist under 2 years. Russia will fail as a country because of this pointless war of aggression.