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this post was submitted on 01 Jan 2024
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Well, the booster exploded below the Karman line (EDIT: Yep, 90km max alt. and detonation, Karman line is 100km), and the orbiter blew up or tore itself apart above the Karman line.
And no, the orbiter did not self destruct as part of some kind of intentional action or design by SpaceX.
It was seen on camera disintegrating before SpaceX even realized they had lost contact with it.
They probably did not engage a self destruct system on the orbiter while they were still claiming it was at a nominal trajectory when they hadnt even realized it had already disintegrated, taking multiple minutes to even realize they'd lost contact with it as pieces of it were already burning and tumbling in the upper atmosphere.
My prediction for 3 is that again at least part of the craft will blow up below the Karman line.
The full static test fires they recently did damaged the craft because the test stand wasn't designed for that the amount of force, nor for the duration they're currently testing with it, and because for some baffling reason they are not using a flame trench or proper diversion channels.
My guess is that, combined with the defects and flaws seen from the first two launches, these full power static fire tests will have damaged the craft more than they are able to repair properly in time to follow Musk's recklessly fast launch timetable, and the whole thing will blow up or have significant trajectory problems from multiple non catastrophic engine failures before the hot staging, and/or when the booster tries to do the belly flop maneuver, the fuel tank(s) or lines will rupture as happened last time, and if the abort system engages properly it'll then basically fall to the ground, or if it doesn't, it'll detonate spectacularly in midair again.
The booster was never intended to go above the Karman line. Calling that a "failure" is ludicrous.
Also, the orbiter was destroyed by its flight termination package triggering, which is the very definition of an intentional action. The reason it triggered was apparently an oxygen leak that led to the upper stage running out of oxidizer just a few seconds short of achieving orbit, which wasn't according to the flight plan, but this was a test flight so the plan was always "see what happens and fix whatever problems come to light" so that's still not exactly a failure. They got farther than they did on IFT-1.
You are perhaps more used to the NASA way of "testing", which is to exhaustively perfect the rocket before it ever launches and then expect everything to go smoothly during a single shakedown flight before payloads start going up with flight #2. That's not how SpaceX does things.
Given that the booster is never going to cross the Karman line (booster separation happens at 64km), and that the intention is to deliberately ditch the booster in the ocean rather than recover it, you've got quite a conservative prediction there. I honestly can't think of any possible way that this wouldn't happen.