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this post was submitted on 18 Jan 2024
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https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/understanding-arctic-polar-vortex
As of 2021 the science was not settled on the ice loss as a cause or an affect. This article goes into both theories.
That's a bit like the investigation into whether lethal bear attacks are because of their teeth or their claws - probably really interesting, but not critical to the question of avoiding the bear.
This made me laugh.
But a fair point when someone says it's due to one as part of their argument
I was led to believe it's both. Global warming causes ice loss which contributes to global warming which causes more ice loss which contributes to global warming which causes more ice loss ...
Interesting. I would love to work on that kind of data model, as there is an interesting thing to point out with the movement of the polar vortex:
It dips further south to follow along land mass.
I wonder if the wind currents have an easier time maintaining speed along flat surfaces or if the water being warmer causes pockets of higher pressure further north than usual pushing the vortex to be more unstable looking.
It feels like it makes sense that the current would be much more stable along a surface that is more consistent and thus loss of ice smoothing the surface would cause it to wobble but inertia still remains the same meaning it needs to push down elsewhere where there is less resistance.
So I would lean towards ice loss as a cause of changing polar vortex stability but I kinda gave up that ability to do anything about this or study such things a while ago.