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this post was submitted on 21 Jan 2024
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I know this is complicated, but what is Iran’s end game here? Don’t they know if they keep poking the bear, they’re going to get demolished? They’re not stupid, whatever anyone may think of them in other regards. (I am against war, at all costs, and I wish everyone would just calm down and let people live their lives the way the see fit without fucking around with that same privilege for others, but that does not seem likely at this point.)
Iran's goal is to damage or sink an American warship without being directly culpable and without risking their own people.
To what end?
The theocracy is losing its grip on the people. But like typical authoritarian assholes, they're trying to rally the people behind external enemies. Poking at the great Satan is one of their favorite call backs.
It also helps as a distraction for Pootin.
Hamas also attacked Israel because of negotiations with Saudi Arabia. The Saudis and Israel are tired of Iran backing terrorist proxies causing conflicts in and around their countries. Are so tired they'd rather make peace even though they don't like each other to team up on Iran. The timing of Hamas attacking was no mistake. It was in the lead up to those peace negotiations to derail the talks.
You make good points, friend.
You're incredibly gullible if you think Iran would get demolished.
https://thehill.com/opinion/congress-blog/4339670-despite-washingtons-confidence-us-war-with-iran-would-be-disastrous/
I think “gullible” is a bit insulting and fairly inaccurate, friend. What I would say is that I did comment without first doing my due diligence. It does appear that Iran’s military capabilities are quite a bit greater than what I had thought. I would also concur that a shooting war with Iran would be a much larger conflict than I realized, with significant challenges for the U.S. I also found that your source is fairly reputable with a qualified background. That said, there are some dissenting opinions that argue a much more aggressive response from the U.S is warranted. All in all, this conflict is a fucking quagmire.
David Schenker at The Washington Institute: "The Risks of a Wider War with Iran and Its Proxies" - Read more on The Washington Institute
Michael Eisenstadt at The Washington Institute: "U.S. Strategy Toward Iran: Restoring Deterrence, Enabling Diplomacy" - Read more on The Washington Institute
The Institute for the Study of War: "Iran Update, December 23, 2023" - Read more on the Institute for the Study of War
Fyi, your links are broken.
Thank you, and fixed.