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this post was submitted on 25 Jan 2024
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Taiwan has been handed over to the Chinese government a long time ago. For two years now the west has been scrambling to open up semiconductor fabs in the US (TSMC in Arizona), Europe (TSMC in Germany) and other Asian countries (South Korea with Samsung, plus many more I haven’t mentioned all across Europe, the US, Asia). Lots of taxpayer money has been handed out to these fabs in the form of subsidies. With semiconductors acting as “a shield” for Taiwan, it’s concerning to see even TSMC spread outside of the country.
The west also relies more on China than on Taiwan economically. Polls also show that over 80% of Japan wouldn’t consider intervening militarily if Taiwan was invaded. Most South Koreans don’t care much either.
Other concerning signs would be that the US has slowly stopped selling Taiwan advanced munitions and other advanced equipment that is very expensive, and has pivoted more towards cheaper munitions. It shows that the deterrence of advanced and expensive equipment hasn’t been working, and that the US is preparing Taiwan more for a war of attrition.
Current signs do not show that the US would intervene if China was to invade, especially after Xi met with Biden in San Francisco last year.
I fail to see how this support would materialise in military intervention. I think it’s unfortunate and I fully support every group of people’s right to self determination and independence, including the Taiwanese under a sovereign Taiwan, but I fail to see a western intervention as realistic.