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Russia-Ukraine War Mega Thread | June 25 - July 8 2023
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this post was submitted on 25 Jun 2023
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Does anyone else think that being seen as weak and capitulating to Prigozhin here is basically a death sentence to Putin?
Doing that has to have just put SO MUCH blood in the water for every internal agency/power-block with aspirations of taking him down and replacing him.
Apparently all you need is 20,000 men and Putin's defenceless...
My opinion is that this is going to cause chaos.
The fact that Putin didn't have Wagner immediately atomized on the spot suggests that he wasn't powerful enough to do so. Not a statement that someone in Putin's position would want to make, I would think.
Yes! Putin is not some superduper strongman that controls his country as his public persona pretends. He is the guy that the key leaders of Russia allow to be in charge. The moment he is unable to meet their needs is the moment he is replaced. Those key leaders just saw that Putin came this close 🤏 to losing their power to an unpredictable madman, and Putin let the guy off because that was his only option!
Putin's days are numbered. He not only left Moscow vulnerable to attack, he gave someone the power to demonstrate it on the world stage. Before Feb 2022, Russia was internationally feared as the world's second strongest military, and now, the joke is that it's the second strongest military in Russia. That someone even outed that the whole premise of the invasion of Ukraine was false, that the military is terribly messing it up, and that Russia itself is vulnerable to attack. Those key leaders want to maintain their power, and Putin is not the man to do it anymore.
I think there is nothing Putin can do short of a complete Stalin-like Great Purge to stay alive, and I think that purge is impossible with its international relations as he has made enemies with everyone in the West. Putin is rightfully scared. Prigozhin, whether purposefully or in a oblivious narcissistic rage fit, just sealed the fate of Russia. This will undoubtedly encourage other leaders to take a swing at Putin, which makes him a liability to the key leaders' power. Either Russia has to embrace a democratic revolution where power is stripped from the oligarchs (very unlikely considering opposition disorganization and the country's economic contributions to the world stage) or a new more authoritarian leader will step in place to reign in control again. Those are the options, so I forsee life in Russia for the general population getting much worse quickly.
Of course we both are speculating without any proof, I am also merely speaking of my gut feeling.
I have been thinking that the rhetoric of saying Putin is weak because Prigozhin was able to momentarily rebel is kind of wishful thinking. I think weak is a pretty strong word.
If Putin is as weak as some of us think he is, Prigozhin would have continued to march towards Moscow already.
At the same time, if Putin is as strong as some of us think he is, his army would have reached Kyiv with a new regime installed already.
Hence the truth should be lying somewhere in between, for now.
I know it's not something many people want to hear because it isn't a polarized statement, for example, it's not as exciting as saying Putin is super strong and can nuke everything, we better bow down to him or Ukraine is super strong and can occupy Moscow tomorrow, let's give them F-35s.
The reality is war is a boring and extremely slow meat grinder. Sometimes you cannot stop it once it's started (because deaths can be remembered for a long time) and sometimes you cannot avoid it (forever appeasement is not far from escalating the situation and empowering the bully which is worse off). I can only wish that Ukraine winning the war can prevent the potential China-Taiwan war from happening.
When new weapons arrive on site, I expect things to change. I wish Ukraine get Crimea back.
Clearly, if Prigozhin marched, it's because he thought it as having a valid chance of success. He left because he was paid what he wanted, be it money or power, etc. Putin, notably capitulated
He did not carpet bomb the fuck, so to speak, out of the traitors. Those threatening his reign. It tells much for those who wish to hear.