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How Russia's economy survived two years of war
(en.thebell.io)
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this post was submitted on 26 Feb 2024
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At this point it's just copium, the toughest moment for Russia was immediately after the initial sanctions but it is clear they've managed to deal with the most important shortages, China doing some heavy ass lifting of course, and get buyers for their exports in the global south, they still haven't completely recovered their export volume but the trend is clearly upwards.
I am sure there are some specific industries having problems replacing specialized part numbers, but they will eventually be produced by China or even produced locally in Russia.
If anything Russia will be in a better spot 1-2 years from now with the steady growth of BRICS and the increasing multi-polarity. Really the only way one can reach the conclusion that Russia will collapse anytime from now is from having internalized racism, thinking that Russians are too primitive to produce certain commodities or that the global south is too primitive to fill the gaps.
Exactly, if sanctions don't work immediately there is zero chance they're going to work later. Economy simply adjusts to work around them, and the longer it goes the more stable it becomes. I mean just look at Iran as an example. The main thing the sanctions are accomplishing is strengthening the BRICS.
The biggest loser in all this will end up being the EU because they genuinely lost something they can't replace. US will be fine because they have their own energy and resources as well as access to whatever Canada's got. I'm also expecting US to ruthlessly cannibalize Europe now that they manged to knock them down a peg. US oligarchs have always been really unhappy with Europe providing a social safety net, and the economic crash provides a perfect opportunity to finally dismantle it.