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this post was submitted on 12 Mar 2024
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TechTakes
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Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.
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I understood this reference. I know it as Gu poison, which is listed in the wikipedia article you linked!
When I was a kid I read a vignette of a guy trying to scam people into thinking he was amazing at predicting things. He chose 1024 stockbrokers, picked one stock, and in 512 envelopes he said the stock would be up by the end of the month, and in the other 512 he said it would go down. You can see where this story is going, i.e. he would be left with one person thinking he predicted 10 things in a row correctly and was therefore a superforecaster. This vignette was great at illustrating to child me that predicting things correctly isn't necessarily some display of great intelligence or insight. Unfortunately what I didn't know is that it was setting me up for great disappointment when after that point and forevermore, I would see time and time again that people would fall for this shit so easily.
(For some reason when I try to think of where I read that vignette, vonnegut comes to mind. I doubt it was him.)
@swlabr @sailor_sega_saturn
"He chose 1024 stockbrokers, picked one stock, and in 512 envelopes he said the stock would be up by the end of the month, and in the other 512 he said it would go down."
1024 stamps?
This guy is clearly already made of money so why is he even bothering.
/s
Stocks and stamps, 2 tastes that have gone great together since Charles Ponzi.
also: the Jen Barber storyline from this IT crowd ep.