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submitted 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago) by dgerard@awful.systems to c/techtakes@awful.systems

As suggested at this thread to general "yeah sounds cool". Let's see if this goes anywhere.

Original inspiration:

The post Xitter web has spawned soo many “esoteric” right wing freaks, but there’s no appropriate sneer-space for them. I’m talking redscare-ish, reality challenged “culture critics” who write about everything but understand nothing. I’m talking about reply-guys who make the same 6 tweets about the same 3 subjects. They’re inescapable at this point, yet I don’t see them mocked (as much as they should be)

If your sneer seems higher quality than you thought, feel free to make it a post, there's no quota here

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[-] Soyweiser@awful.systems 11 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

If you have ever wondered why so many Rationalists do weird end of year predictions and keep stats on that, it is because they all want to become superforecasters. (And remember by correctly forecasting trivial things that are sure to happen, you can increase your % of correct forecasts and you can become a superforecaster yourself. Never try to forecast black swans for that reason however (or just predict they will not happen for more superforecastpoints)).

See also you could have been a winner! And got a free sub to ACX!

[-] dgerard@awful.systems 11 points 9 months ago

this is what literary Bayesianism promises: the ability to pluck numbers out your ass and announce them in a confident voice

this post was submitted on 12 Mar 2024
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