If you do tell them you’d need a completely unrealistic scenario for that project to hit a good number then one of two things will happen:

“well you need to think of changes to those projects to get there, that’s what we’re paying you for”

or “you haven’t considered that X initiative will massively boost the numbers, so we’ll easily hit our goal” with X being some project a self aggrandizing jackass confidently promised will deliver absurd results and now leadership loves them (currently that’s anyone saying to add AI to stuff that very much doesn’t need it). If this happens just wash your hands of it and document it as a key growth factor.

The goal of these meetings is often to justify projects that leadership has already agreed on, don’t want to be challenged on, and are simply looking for the numbers they can put on a slide and parade to the board or investors.

It’s a very hard sell to convince them to drop or realistically modify projects. There are execs who will listen to the numbers, but I’m finding them increasingly rare now that everyone is in greedy self preservation mode.

My worst example: a company brought me on to validate and provide recommendations for a big project that was struggling. I looked at the numbers, the margins were always going to be terrible, it needed massive economy of scale and to be successful (always always a red flag!), cost a lot to make, and the revenue numbers were forecast to be low thousands a year. I told the CEO and execs this project was doomed, drop it and focus elsewhere, but they felt it would be a huge breakout success, making up a significant portion of corporate revenues, and the numbers were irrelevant (so why did they hire me?).

They still offer that product, it still definitely makes no money.