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this post was submitted on 16 Apr 2024
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This. This is what it boils down to. This is why Pakistan and India keep getting away with the shit they pull along with all other nuclear nations. The moment Iran claims nuclear capable, “restraint” will be shown. With the amount of back channel communication that’s been happening between the US and Iran over the Gaza and Israel situation, it’s very likely they already have shown their hand and ability to be nuclear, and therefore the calculus is now extremely complex compared to something like Iraq and Afghanistan.
This also explains why Iran demonstrated and telegraphed their attack the way they did and the US agreed to it, despite the “Iran is the devil” rhetoric being perpetuated worldwide.
Hate to say it, but might is right and has always been.
Edit: To add, if they admit they are nuclear capable publicly, they are inviting more sanctions and another escalation which is the last thing they need given the state of their economy. They will also be on the back foot because Israel gets the moral high ground for being right about their nuclear ambitions.
Your interpretation sounds pretty likely to me. I'd guess if they get nukes, they'll go Israeil's way and will newer admit to it publicy.
Kind of weird everyone needs a thesis on this. It's literally why everyone wants a nuke. No one's going to attack a nuclear power. Ukraine wouldn't be in the position they're in if they kept their nukes.
100%. There are fewer bigger security mistakes than giving up nukes. It’s a case study of why you shouldn’t just trust “diplomacy”.