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this post was submitted on 20 Apr 2024
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Proxy wars... the bread and butter of the military industrial complex.
Israel/Iran won't be a proxy war if it goes hot.
For one thing, they don't have a border with Israel, and Israel doesn't have Marines, so they can't even load up and sail through ally controlled water.
If Israeli troops try to invade Iran, or vice versa, it will either be through Iraq and Jordan/Syria and a whole bunch of weird shit will kick off if that happens.
Also... Everyone knows Israel has nukes, and Iran's program was rather famously sabotaged.
Even if they don't have a nuke (and we assume they haven't otherwise acquired one), does Iran have the materials to make a dirty bomb?
Iran should have plenty of material for a dirty bomb from their joint Russian reactor project many many years back. The problem is that the US can fingerprint Uranium to where it was mined after a blast due to each mine having their own set of impurities based on the region the material came from.
If the he material used in the peaceful electrical reactor project ends up in a bomb, it could be used as Casus Belli for a Nuclear Reaponse against Iran and Russia by Israel and the US.
But there won't be any nuclear response.