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this post was submitted on 18 Oct 2022
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Yogthos before Feb 2022: Russia is not going to invade Ukraine
Yogthos now: Russia cannot leave Ukraine
you ok?
Seems like a fair crit.
I've explained my rationale for why I did not think Russia would go to war in Ukraine. As most people, I thought a conflict would be too costly and Russia could get what they wanted through diplomatic ways. Clearly that wasn't the case. I'm not sure why people think this is such a gotcha. We all make analysis based on the information available, and nobody has a crystal ball that predicts the future perfectly.