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this post was submitted on 21 May 2024
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Low interest rates mean people can borrow more. If people have access to more money but supply is limited, then prices go up. This is the supply and demand equation, but I think it's good to test things we think we know. One issue we will find is that the US tend to sign mortgage loans with the interest rate fixed for 30 years, so interest rates changing don't impact existing owners except when they move. Here in NZ people tend to only get a fixed rate for a year or two, and no major bank offers one past 5 years. Here's one study "The Effect of Interest Rates and Mortgage Lending on House Prices".
The abstract states:
The "especially outside the US" part is why I mention the difference in US mortgages vs ours.
And in the actual paper, this is part of the conclusion:
Here's another that takes it a step further and says that purchasing power is the real driver, rather than interest rates in and of themselves.
AFIK the US has very long mortgage terms. It's routine to get a 30 year mortgage with locked in terms. Of course people can and do refinance but if they have good terms they can keep them until the house is paid off.
Our mortgages are only a couple of years or so.
That's a huge difference INMHO and can't really be compared.
I mean, that's pretty much what that first study says. The international markets they studied had big impacts on house prices from interest rate changes. There was less of an effect in the US, but still a lot more than they expected.