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this post was submitted on 05 Aug 2024
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Europe
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Honestly this is probably not going to hit the EU too badly. The big laggered in the EU is Germany, who can easily spend its money out of a recession. It would be smart to spend the money anyway, so good news. For the rest of Europe we just had a crisis due to Ukraine and that already caused some problems. However it means falling inflation, due to falling energy prices and hence the option to lower rates, which many other regions do not have.
China and the US are in a worse spot though. China trades a lot with Japan and SK, which seem to be the center of this and China is already in trouble due to a massive housing crisis and low local demand. With the export market being closed to China by the US and EU this is a problem.
The US will do a bit better, but there is a massive bubble in tech stocks. It might hurt Elon though, which is great news.
This has a good site for Europe though. The oil price is at $75 for Brent. This is going to hurt the Russian economy badly, which obviously is good for Ukraine and peace is great for Europe in general.
I just read a German article warning that the oil-price could increase, but that a decrease would also be bad...
It seems like after 2008 all we did was pile even more cards on top of the fragile house, to make sure the next collapse will be even bigger.