97
submitted 3 weeks ago by lemmee_in@lemm.ee to c/collapse@sopuli.xyz
top 7 comments
sorted by: hot top controversial new old
[-] jabathekek@sopuli.xyz 20 points 3 weeks ago
[-] hydroptic@sopuli.xyz 12 points 3 weeks ago

Yeah, definitely a "no shit?" moment – and we'll be very lucky if we stay under 2°C, let alone 1.5°C, even if we suddenly went carbon negative right at this very second.

[-] MisterD@lemmy.ca 8 points 3 weeks ago

But we must go higher so that the profits trickle down to us. /s

[-] CaptDust@sh.itjust.works 5 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

Are there models for 3c or 4c? From what I see, the world ain't gonna do shit until entire countries become tangibly uninhabitable.

[-] hydroptic@sopuli.xyz 4 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

I doubt anything will happen even then.

Well, nothing useful at least – I'm sure that with the current meteoric rise of the extreme right many things will happen, but they'll be more of the "death camp" variety than the "fixing the climate" variety

edit: I think high-emission models (ie models that assume we're going to do jack fucking shit and emissions will keep rising, which frankly seems probable) have predicted average temperature rises of 4 – 5°C. I'm trying to dig up some sources, hang on

Revenge of the Edit:
the following refer to the global mean screen temperature[^1] at the end of the century for the most pessimistic SSPs[^2]

  • CanESM5's prediction is around 20 – 21°C, giving an anomaly of ~5 – 6°C
  • CNRM-CM6-1 gives global mean screen temps of around 18 – 19°C, so an anomaly of ~3 – 4°C
  • I think UKESM1-0-LL had an anomaly of around 3.5 – 5°C but I'm too tired to read that paper and can't seem to find the relevant figures
  • ditto for GFDL-CM4

The Edit Strikes Back:

The IPCC's 6th Assessment Report (AR6) includes data from older and usually less sensitive versions (ie. very often more optimistic…) of the models above plus a ton of others, and its Physical Science Basis report's policymaker summary had this handy table:

Note that climate models are just that, models. We know they still have a lot of biases and they're not perfect, but they do already predict historical climate really well, and it should be telling that the better the models get, the worse the predictions tend to be


[^1]: temperature measured at a standardized height using a "Stevenson screen". Current global mean screen temperature is around 15°C [^2]: "Shared Socioeconomic Pathways", standardized modeling scenarios

[-] Etterra@lemmy.world 3 points 3 weeks ago

Welp, we had a good run.

[-] tardigrada@beehaw.org 2 points 3 weeks ago

Recent research by Nasa on Pacific Islands:

NASA Analysis Shows Irreversible Sea Level Rise for Pacific Islands

In the next 30 years, Pacific Island nations such as Tuvalu, Kiribati, and Fiji will experience at least 6 inches (15 centimeters) of sea level rise, according to an analysis by NASA’s sea level change science team. This amount of rise will occur regardless of whether greenhouse gas emissions change in the coming years.

“Sea level will continue to rise for centuries, causing more frequent flooding,” said Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer, who directs ocean physics programs for NASA’s Earth Science Division."

this post was submitted on 12 Oct 2024
97 points (98.0% liked)

Climate Crisis, Biosphere & Societal Collapse

1074 readers
8 users here now

A place to share news, experiences and discussion about the continuing climate crisis, societal collapse, and biosphere collapse. Please be respectful of each other and remember the human.

Long live the Lützerath Mud Wizard.

Useful Links:

DISCORD - Collapse

Earth - A Global Map of Wind, Weather and Ocean Conditions - Use the menu at bottom left to toggle different views. For example, you can see where wildfires/smoke are by selecting "Chem - COsc" to see carbon monoxide (CO) surface concentration.

Climate Reanalyzer (University of Maine) - A source for daily updated average global air temps, sea surface temps, sea ice, weather and more.

National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (US) - Information about ENSO and weather predictions.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) Global Temperature Rankings Outlook (US) - Tool that is updated each month, concurrent with the release of the monthly global climate report.

Canadian Wildland Fire Information System - Government of Canada

Surging Seas Risk Zone Map - For discovering which areas could be underwater soon.

Check out our sister sub for collapse-related memes and silly stuff, Faster Than Expected!
AKA
c/fte@supoli.xyz

Alternative community on Reddthat

If there are any links you think are important that should be added to the list, please send a message and let me know.

Thanks for coming to c/collapse!

This is a supoli.xyz community.
SUPOLI GENERAL RULES:

  1. Remember the human! (no harassment, threats, etc.)
  2. No racism or other discrimination
  3. No Nazis, QAnon or similar whackos and no endorsement of them
  4. No porn
  5. No ads or spam
  6. No content against Finnish law

Supoli FAQ

founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS