10x cheaper than in 2010, and 40x-100x cheaper than in the 90s. It'll probably continue to decrease. (i.postimg.cc)

submitted 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) by soumerd_retardataire@lemmy.world to c/dataisbeautiful@lemmy.world

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[-] superkret@feddit.org 16 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Spaceship (estimate)

An important detail is missing: whose estimate?

[-] soumerd_retardataire@lemmy.world 4 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

The chart seems to have emerged from an apparently famous report(, p.13, discussed there), whose taking its source from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, an american think tank.

As for the estimated cost of Starship, a cost inferior to $300/kg(, sometimes below $100/kg) seems confirmed all over the internet after a quick research, although the prices are varying, with many articles(, e.g.,) speaking about an aim below 10$/kg.
However, interestingly enough, the only contradiction i found came from wikipedia, since a capacity of 100.000-150.000kg for a current launch cost of $100.000.000 would imply a cost of 666-1000$ per kg.

I've probably made mistakes while checking all of this, so feel free to dive deeper in order to explain the differences between SpaceX's estimates and the wikipedia page.

[-] minzastro@programming.dev 7 points 1 day ago

I love such curve-fitting techniques. By 2025 we can launch 1t into space for a few cents, if we follow the purple line.

[-] Fermion@feddit.nl 2 points 22 hours ago

It's also absurd that the fit line dives down to be cheaper and earlier than an optimistic projection that will likely move further to the top right as time progresses. That's a chart with an agenda, not an analytical regression.

[-] soumerd_retardataire@lemmy.world 1 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Yeah, and the curve would be even worse if the y-axis was linear b.t.w. 🤷

[-] Fermion@feddit.nl 2 points 22 hours ago

I think this actually is a linear regression plotted on a log y graph.

Which a linear regression is a bad choice for something that must be asymptotic at best.

[-] gcheliotis@lemmy.world 8 points 1 day ago

This is somewhat deceiving, as the drop only looks steep because of a single data point (falcon heavy) and an estimate.

[+] soumerd_retardataire@lemmy.world -14 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

On one side you have single-use rockets, and on the other side they're reusable, it's no wonder that the launch cost was reduced, don't really look like a deception, but sure, since you instantly downvoted my answer you believe that this chart is still deceiving, ok
And the estimate is confirmed all over the internet since (the first versions of )Starship have been built, and even launched multiple times.
Not that i care anyway, just thought that it was a nice infographic(, especially since the y-axis is on a log scale), i'll guess that it's probably because of E.Musk that most of you are blindly displeased.
Sure, a second downvote in a few minutes w/o arguments now, w/e...

This third downvote for an absolutely factual answer on my part gives me the occasion to clarify something, since i'm convinced you only have a problem with E.Musk and not space exploration.
So for those wondering, and eventually the mods wondering if they should censor this post for Musk apologia : i'm opposing E.Musk on his criticisms towards trans-rights and because he's pro-capitalism(, like the majority of the world population, feel free to hate them as well).
However, i'm supporting him because i'm an accelerationist and he's n°1 in this regard, i'm also an ecologist, and i'm a libertarian and he saved 𝕏 from the same censorship fate that can be observed on Meta and Youtube(, and reddit for that matter). He's also strangely opposed to neo-cons, e.g. by not being anti-China, even if i couldn't have asked for that much.
There are many people that i love/admire despite disagreeing with them on some/many topics, the same goes for you unless you're hating everyone else(, or mistakenly&strangely believe that everyone agrees with you).
And i'm opposing every single one of those here who are unable to disagree with the m.s.m. on a single issue, the same herd mentality that made me flee the reddit hivemind, it's everywhere and you're not different, isn't it really weird how unanimous our medias are ? Yeah w/e, censor this post and/or ban me, or not i.d.c.

[-] gcheliotis@lemmy.world 5 points 1 day ago

Dude, counting downvotes doesn’t help, nor does going off on some political rant about Elon Musk. It does look like a graph that would be promoted by an Elon fanboy, but my observation had nothing to do with that. I said it looks somewhat deceiving because it makes a big deal of just one datapoint and one estimate. But I know nothing about rockets or space exploration, so maybe the underlying fundamentals are solid.

[-] soumerd_retardataire@lemmy.world -4 points 23 hours ago* (last edited 23 hours ago)

This comment was first downvoted, like, 10s after i posted it, thought it was by you so i mentioned it.
This post&comment were downvoted because of Elon Musk, and i believe they/we are mistaken, if i don't say it there's not a lot of people here who would. Since i've already inquired about "your" arguments on E.Musk, i'm maintaining my accusation of a hivemind mentality until i'm standing corrected, any person who passionately hate him have very weak arguments in the end, but it's not only the case about him, at least few people hate him because many lies were spread by our government, even if he received his share of lies(, e.g. the emerald mines and more).

Your observation is weird because every datapoint on this graph is here to stay, it's not a measurement, i don't get it, you obviously don't believe that the curb is gonna go up, and at most i could be accused of stating something that everyone knew for years, not something that people find hard to believe in.

[-] gcheliotis@lemmy.world 3 points 22 hours ago* (last edited 22 hours ago)

Chill. Most people liked your post anyway. Hiveminds are outside your control, so you gotta roll with the punches and move on. I’ve been at the receiving end of a lot more downvotes than this. Trust me, you get used to it 😂

[-] Poach@lemmy.world 3 points 1 day ago

I didn't know that it matters if it's reusable if it can't even carry a payload. Starship has launched multiple times. They have little to show for it. They have not carried any payload into space with starship.

[-] soumerd_retardataire@lemmy.world -2 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Don't know if it matters to point that out but, as stated here, the Starship has a capacity of 100-150 tons, for a gross mass of ~4600 tons(, 200-3400 tons for the booster depending on the fuel, and 120-1200 tons for the Starship itself depending on the fuel as well, at least if i understood correctly the wikipedia article, it doesn't seem like the capacity is very high so it's a bit weird, but it's mostly confirmed elsewhere).
They've demonstrated that it's doable, succeeding 3 times and failing twice. Hence, they've demonstrated that they're able to carry a payload into space, feel free to learn that you were wrong in your assessment(, like me/everyone on many topics,) and yet to downvote this comment as well 👍

[-] henfredemars@infosec.pub 6 points 1 day ago

I really miss the space shuttle. That was really cool, and I don’t think we’ve built a vehicle that quite compares.

[-] Toto@lemmy.world 6 points 1 day ago

Would be interesting if it was adjusted for inflation

[-] lemmyman@lemmy.world 4 points 1 day ago

How is spaceflight weighted in the CPI?

[-] soumerd_retardataire@lemmy.world -3 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

lol, kinda amazing that it'll become pertinent to ask this for the next generations(, probably not before the construction of a space elevator though).
We're only little mammals and now are leaving the planet, as far as we know we'd be the first earthlings to do so, what a step.

this post was submitted on 14 Nov 2024

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