I was pretty much in your exact same situation less than 2 years ago. (A little bit older than you, though.)
What really helped me was to not use passing as a precondition for transitioning. Instead I admitted that HRT and social transition were likely to help my mental health and well-being compared to not taking HRT or socially transitioning, and that those improvements justified transitioning even if I never passed. My well-being required it, so I needed to do it.
I never thought I would pass, but the reality is that you never know what it will be like unless you try.
This video is what finally cracked my egg and caused me to transition, it might speak to you - it's about common excuses used to avoid transitioning.
There are pretty much no "risks" with hormone therapy, esp. if you do injections or transdermal routes. The only "risk" is that you will have permanent boobs. You may become infertile, but also you may not - so if you want to have children, you might seek fertility treatments to freeze sperm for the future. If you don't want children, use protection and don't rely on HRT to make you infertile.
Otherwise there is no real risk. You can even take HRT for a few months without risk of any permanent changes, and this can really help you get a sense of whether it is right for you or not. I would highly suggest taking HRT as the first step.
The risks with voice training are mostly just vocal injuries from overdoing it or training improperly (e.g. manipulating your anatomy like forcing your larynx up and pulling a muscle, etc.) - my suggestion would be to find a speech language pathologist who has experience working with trans people to help you with voice training. There are also a lot of online resources, like Selene's clips and TransVoiceLessons. There's a Discord server for the /r/transvoice subreddit, and you can upload clips there and get feedback and help. I suggest that in addition to seeing an SLP.
Just remember both HRT and voice training are very long term projects, changes occur over months and years. Starting as early as possible will help, esp. being in your early thirties it is so much better to start now than starting later.
You can decide on surgeries later, and those can take years to make happen anyway (e.g. vaginoplasty generally requires 1 year of electrolysis hair removal in the genital region, and in the U.S., insurance companies require 1 year on HRT before any gender affirming surgeries will be covered; then once you find a surgeon you can be on a wait list for a while depending on the surgeon).
When I first transitioned I just wanted an orchi, I was pretty sure I didn't want a vaginoplasty ... well, things changed for me and by 6 months into HRT I realized I needed a vaginoplasty. Just be aware that your experiences might shift as you slide into womanhood.
Obligatory: read The Gender Dysphoria Bible and the Intro to HRT for Transfem People.
When I first transitioned, I certainly accepted I would never pass, but here I am a year and a few months later and I am passing all the time. You never know until you try. Lots of people transition even older than you and have great results, it is never too late.
Also, my experience with boy-moding is that people who knew you pre-transition will continue to see a man because they selectively see what they expect to. They might notice you are looking younger and so on, but they might literally not notice you have grown breasts, etc. (One of my neighbors told me I looked 10 years younger when I shaved my beard, this was like 6+ months on estrogen and I had breasts and was even changing my voice with him.) So that has been my experience, and the experience of others (read Julia Serano's Whipping Girl, she has some examples too). I know a trans woman IRL who never came out at work and I would say she passes completely as a woman with obvious breasts and soft features and long feminine hair, etc. - and her colleagues are clueless and still treat her like a man.
The issue you might run into is that strangers will start to see you as a woman, and as you begin to pass more and more, there can be confusion for the people who knew you pre-transition, they will wonder why others are getting your gender wrong (because they can still only see a boy / man). So for example, going to dinner with your family, a waitress might refer to you as miss or ma'am and that might confuse your family - they'll just wonder what's wrong with the waitress, though.
Feel free to ask me any questions you have, my DMs are open. I wish you luck π