Technology

It's likely going to take down whole companies if not countries.

Vastly more poor people will be affected, and those rich people who aren't will just buy everything up on sale, further hoarding wealth.

We'd all like to think that but what usually happens is that the ultra wealthy lose a quarter or half their wealth, which makes no difference to anyone because they are so massively wealthy .... everyone else lose everything

Basically, the only way to truly “lose it all” in a market crash is if you’re all-in on a company that goes under - or if you actually own that company. Most investors don’t really lose anything. Their portfolio value drops for a while, but if they can wait it out, it usually recovers within a year or so.

When you hear about people losing their savings in a market crash, it’s usually because they panic-sold at a loss. Even then, they don’t lose everything - just a portion. People like me, who invest for the long term and mostly in highly diversified index funds, are more or less unaffected. We’re not planning to sell for decades anyway. If anything, we'll just buy more for a discount.

Not that I'm rich or anything but the point is that rich people generally aren't stupid when it comes to finances - otherwise they wouldn't be rich. It's the people who don't know better who take the hit.

The revenue is still less than that of Clash of Clans or Candy Crush. And it is mostly coming from the companies involved in the shell game as well.

From my experience, OAI may be the public face of AI, but Anthropic is murdering them in coding capability and cost - as in my company pays more in a week for me to use Claude than I would've paid in a month to use the top OAI API. (Actually I paid 1/10th that because I couldn't afford that for what was essentially just a toy for my discord users—I wasn't using it for development.) It really puts things in perspective when I can see in Cline the running totals for each task.

Of course, I have no idea what the operating costs are.

Knowing corrupt Trump in power and aipac dems yes.

Nah I'd put money on it being quantum computing. I think quantum has some neat applications, and the tech is cool as hell. But I think it'll be sold like "this is gonna instantly transform business overnight" and people will try to sell quantum computing power

Given what Peter Thiel's been talking about lately, that's not all that far fetched.

Or like, anyone one of the massively cash negative companies with in the bubble being unable to secure more money.

Hey, how’s that deal between SoftBank and OpenAI doing? You know, the one where they get the liquidity they need to keep operating if they convert to a for profit company before the end of the year? Yah? So … they managed to convert to a fire profit company yet? No? Oh, damn, I sure they’ll figure out that incredibly complicated and dubiously legal process by the end of the fiscal year.

Not percentage wise though. Their money moves the markets and it'll be them getting out that tanks your index funds. They'll rotate into something else while you wait 8 years to get back to even because AI stocks were 40% of the market and what they run up next is only 5% of your portfolio.

It's got to be near a top, but news like this makes me feel like they're looking to drop the market for one more final push though.

No worries I’ll just rotate into gold. Let’s see what the price is at these days.

God dammit!

LLMs can't do most of those things and traffic analysis and other techniques already can but sometimes lack the data due to data sharing limitations.

You don't need GPUs to do traffic analysis you just need more Five Eyes, TIA, room 641A stuff.

The challenge, as always, is to never underestimate a bubble's capacity to outlast your solvency. I personally know people who have been heading against the housing "bubble" in Canada bursting since 1999. They've spent a lot of money with nothing to show for it, yet, and missed out on housing prices, like, quadrupling? Quintupling?

So, good luck. Buying out-of-market puts might be a safer bet, since you're most likely to "just" lose all your money, with a small chance of a massive payout of it "properly" crashes.

unfortunately you can't really get rich from knowing a bubble will happen. things like shorting, put options, bear certificates, and etfs with inverse leverage either have terrible risk reward ratios (you can basically lose infinite money from shorting, that's what the whole gamestop/amc thing was about) or very bad long-term gains (bear certificates and inverse etfs usually only track day-to-day changes and generally fall in value when the stock they're tracking fluctuates in price).
of course, if you know when the crash is gonna happen, it's a completely different story. then you can buy shorts/puts/etc just before the bubble bursts and laugh yourself to the bank (assuming the firms on the wrong end of those assets haven't gone bankrupt, which is also a very real risk in a situation like this)