Polling guru Nate Silver and his election prediction model gave Donald Trump a 63.8% chance of winning the electoral college in an update to his latest election forecast on Sunday, after a NYT-Siena College poll found Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 1 percentage point.
He's just a guy analizing the polls. The source is Fox News. He mentions in the article that tomorrow's debate could make that poll not matter.
Should you trust Nate or polls? They're fun but... Who is answering these polls? Who wants to answer them before even October?
So yeah take it seriously that a poll found that a lot of support for Trump exists. But it's just a moment of time for whoever they polled. Tomorrow's response will be a much better indication of any momentum.
I know a conservative mother who started the debate with Israel, abortion, and godly values being her main concerns. Godly values was the most important to her.
Before we even got to "concepts of a plan" she actually said she isn't sure who is the best choice for the country. We stopped giving the tv our full attention when she said it was depressing her - we ended up playing cards games the rest of the debate so I didn't react as much. But thankfully I got to chuckle live at the concepts of a plan.
I've been trying to avoid saying "weird" when talking about republicans. I don't want right leaning folk to think I'm trying to buzzword them. But it's really hard and sometimes I do say weird (was describing JD Vance's eyeliner) but that kinda makes it worse because I'll catch myself saying it and backpedal immediately and change the word (the eyeliner became 'unflattering' instead of 'weird') and they notice. And it feels like I have to protect them. Like... I'm not calling them snowflakes to their faces... But I'm loudly walking the proverbial egg shells.
This is why I had to say that "Concepts of a plan" was cute instead of weird. I ended up comparing it to my mother asking if I had cleaned my room, with me responding "I've thought about cleaning my room."
All that to say... It's hard for anyone with a good heart to enjoy Trump speaking. We made comments that Harris was obviously baiting him - but does that matter when he takes the bait? The immigration stories. The hate-filled eyes.
Trump is either a mean old man who is innocent. Or he's a terrible liar - and truly a bad person.
It was a good night. I don't know who she will vote for. But in 2020 I DID. When Harris addressed how you don't need to abandon your faith to know the trump ban laws are wrong, it felt like Kamala was speaking directly to people like her