In the above post.
This is a war fought against humanity. Ukraine's strategy is to keep Russian losses at or above the Russian recruitment capacity. If the Russian losses descend under 25 000 per month, they can first fill their ranks, and when that's done, start actually training their soldiers, which would change the course of the war. If there are less than about a thousand Russia military losses per day, then humanity is in danger in large regions.
I live in Finland, where about five percent of the people are Russian-speakers. Half from the Russia, the other half from Baltics.
My image of them has changed dramatically since 2022. I've had a job where I encounter a lot of different low-educated workers, and that has a included several tens of Russian-speakers. There has been precisely one among them that has not been repeating Putin's talking points.
Nowadays I try to steer clear of everyone with a Russian name because I don't want to ruin my workday. When they hear that I've lived some time in Ukraine, the war easily comes up. And then does the propaganda.
Having this experience has been something I really wouldn't have wanted to have. I have indeed met Russians who are decent people. But, all of them have received other citizenships already years ago, because if you don't believe the Russian propaganda, you see what a horrible country it is, and want nothing to do with it.
If someone has not left the Russia by 2025, they have a reason for that. They stand for Putin's fascism.
Russian soldiers are mostly not conscripted, but enlist because the salary of a factory worker in a rural town is around 70 € per month, whereas the salary of a soldier is about 2000 € per day, which means a monthly salary each day, including weekends.
They go killing because they are okay to kill others in order to get a richer life for their family. And that's not an okay reason. They have chosen their fate and deserve death.
He was never the head of KGB. He was planted as the prime minister by KGB precisely because the big guys at KGB believed they could control him when the prime minister becomes a president by the president resigning.
The other important people in KGB would never have allowed for the head of the KGB to become the president if the Russia, because they were his competitors.
Russians don't really defect. They are told that Ukrainians will torture them for fun if they are caught alive and then kill each one, so it looks for them as if a 99% chance of dying on the field is still better chance than 100% chance of torture and then death anyway.
And because the Russian soldiers honestly believe this is how Ukrainians behave, they do that very thing to Ukrainians "in revenge".
If they defect to the rear, they are shot by kadyrovite sheep enthusiasts.
So, whether the number includes defects is largely irrelevant. Maybe they do, maybe they don't, but that won't affect the numbers even by a tenth of a percent.
Some they do, but actually most they don't. The casualty rate is about 40 000 per month, meaning that there are about 25 000 cripples per month. The Russian recruitment capacity is about 25 000 to 35 000 per month depending on the source, so there should be about one cripple for one four-limbed soldier if all of the cripples were sent to the front. In reality, their number is a tiny fraction of that, as we can see in the videos.
About 600 000 of those 900 000 are permanently crippled instead of dead. Those who already were married don't produce a eligible woman for Putin, but of course in the Russian atmosphere you won't find a woman if your number of limbs is less than four.
A bit over one third of these losses are deaths.
Typically in wars it's about one sixth, and that is also approximately Ukraine's ratio as well. For the Russia the number is very different because they don't care for their wounded – many of the wounded are converted to dead through inexistence of medical care.
So, 900 000 Russian losses equals a bit over 300 000 dead orcs/roaches/whateveryoucallthem.
The thing is, for the war it doesn't really have much meaning whether the loss is through death or a serious wound. It's one soldier less all the same.
The Oryx numbers at least are not underestimated – each single number has a photo to prove it. And the numbers published by ZSU always rise and descend hand-in-hand with those of Oryx – there seems to be a more or less fixed coefficient that you can convert the numbers back and forth.
Also, because the ZSU data is published before that of Oryx, it must be based on actual data. Then, the question is: what is the coefficient between reality and these numbers we keep seeing in these brown images. We have got a couple of leaks from the Russia, and they have been almost precisely the same as the data published by ZSU. Therefore, the coefficient is apparently 1.
I find it very surprising that the ZSU numbers are not inflated, but when trying to find evidence on how much they are inflated, I've only found evidence of them actually being as precisely correct as possible.
the Russian law prohibits using drafted conscripts in a war like this. While that law is largely ignored, it goes have the effect that the Russia hires soldiers mainly through giving them an enormous salary: In rural areas a factory worker might get a monthly salary of around 70 € per month. As a soldier you get 2000 € per month, which is about 70 € per day!
That also means, the soldiers are in it because they have decided they want to do they in order to give a less poor life for their family. Killing others' children in order to feed theirs better.
A very small fraction of the soldiers you see die have come to the front against their will.
Therefore: Roaches, not orcs.
I have not heard of another batch of NK soldiers after the initial 12000. There are talks about them possibly sending another 12000.
With the Russia losing 1300 soldiers per day as dead and wounded, the NK troops cover 10(+ maybe another 10?) days worth soldiers.
The Russian army is shrinking by about 15 000 soldiers per month. That was canceled out by NK troops for one month once, and possibly another one soon.
They don't count as military losses. This isn't a statistic about Russian suffering. This a statistic about how many soldiers the Russian military has lost from its ranks. PTSD doesn't remove a soldier from the ranks.