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this post was submitted on 05 Oct 2024
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Wouldn't Turkey or someone sour this?
But if it's actually possible, that's fascinating... if Ukraine can't push back quickly, wouldn't it "force" an end to the war? Russia would have a red line it absolutely can't cross, no hope of advancement, and likely just claim everything on the other side. Surely they wouldn't continue a grinding stalemate where Ukraine has a "safe zone" to operate out of.
If Ukraine does retain its ability to push back hard by the time this happens, and doesn't go for a truce, then that's especially peculiar. Walling off a part of their territory as actually untouchable seems like a massive strategic advantage for Ukraine.
I don't think there is any way Erdoğan would be on board with this idea.
Even if it doesn't happen prior to some form of peace agreement or something...that's an interesting thought. Like, any scenario where the conflict restarts would place Ukraine in a considerably more-favorable position militarily than is the case today. Today, simply by dint of weapons each has available, Russia has much more ability to attack Ukrainian territory than vice versa. But in the event of such a guarantee and Russia restarting conflict with Ukraine in some form, Russia wouldn't be able to touch a lot of Ukraine's territory without starting a conflict with NATO, but Ukraine would have a free hand to hit Russia's territory, with whatever weapons it could obtain.
Doesn't Russia have defensive pacts of their own, with North Korea and CSTO: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_Security_Treaty_Organization#History
They would undoubtedly claim to be attacked if Ukraine uses weapons in "their" territory the next time around, and at the very least drag Belarus (and NK as an explicit supplier) in with them.
Do they still have CSTO after the Azerbaijan thing?
Probably "CSTO if convenient?"
I can't find anything about it being officially disbanded, though now that you mention it, Kazakhstan doesn't really want to deploy troops to take Ukraine, does it?