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Sheinbaum rejects US ‘invasion’ after Trump orders military to target Mexico cartels
(www.theguardian.com)
this post was submitted on 08 Aug 2025
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Mexico has no military that could stop the US. Maybe sanctions...but it's not like saying "no" ever stopped Mango Mussolini.
Mmmmm, don't be too sure.
Yeah, the US has the drones and the tanks and the planes. Remember how well that went in Afghanistan? Iraq, anyone?
They can invade the country and overrun it in seconds, I have no doubt about that. Then, though, the fun starts.
Mexicans, especially those in the cartels, have very creative ways to make people really really regret stepping in the wrong direction.
How many videos of US soldiers slowly being cut into pieces alive and then hung from a bridge, posted on TikTok, do you think it'll take before his base starts getting a very big knot in their stomach?
Then what do you think cartel soldiers already in the US will do? How do you think the Latino community in the US will respond?
If the US invades México, it will destroy México, have no doubt about that.
It will also absolutely end Trump and the US.
The Taliban didn't have a military that could stop the US either. How did that work out again?
Maybe Mexico should be in NATO now.
They have a whole lot of people who could pass as someone genuinely from the US underclass for long enough to get into a shopping mall or some legislatures with an automatic weapon.
And a border long enough that they can't be efficiently stopped, especially as the front overtakes them. Look at Russia and Ukraine and a third of the Russian strategic airforce in flames.
I am with you until the last sentence.
In an actual war, the US would take Mexico in half a day. The US military is far more competent than Russsia. But holding it is another matter.
There would be insurgents for decades and you are absolutely right that it would spill over into the domestic United States. I would be an absolute disaster.
But it will not remain so. A dictatorship needs a pyramid of incompetence, the most competent person in the military needs to be Trump, he will hire only less competetnt people, and it cascades from there. The Russians are incompetent not because they are worse as people, but because their society is organised the way Trump wants to remake the US as.
Just to mention, just a few months after taking command, two US Navy fighter jets were lost as they slid off a carrier deck as per the official account, which I expect to be as accurate as the Russian accounts of smoking soldiers blowing up ammo dumps. The real thing is going to be much more embarassing if this is what they admit to.
Ukraine has the benefit of bordering a powerful alliance that is giving them weapons, Mexico does not.
Guatemala, Belize, and boats from Cuba are nowhere near the same thing as getting literal trainloads of heavy weapons and fighting vehicles through Poland.
comparing Mexican/Cartel resistance to an aggressive America, is not even in the same conversation as the bumbling fuckwit Russian invasion of Europe.
The EU and the US is giving Ukraine weapons because every bunch of old tech we give them means one less Russian armored division we need to worry about.
Why would China not do the same and fire up a whole bunch of container ships loaded with old shit and drop it off in Latin America? How long would it take for the US occupation force to start to find Chinese missile launchers and drones taking Abrams platoons to the cleaners?
And if the US started a Mexican occupation, do you think the whole of Latin America would just look on, or rather drift into a Chinese sphere of influence as a result? How long until you had Chinese military presence in Panama for example? Imagine a blockade on US trade in Panama, enforced by Chinese anti-ship missiles.
It would be the mother of all clusterfucks.
Ukraine doesn't have to worry about Russian troops intercepting Aid trans and planes coming from the west. (although they do a good job at stirring up locals into doing things like farmer protests blocking aid)
Central america on the other hand, Has the entire pacific ocean, and the US Navy to deal with. if the US was off the rails on fascist-invade-your-neighbors mode. the navy would absolutely be blockading the region and sinking any ship that came near it that tried to break the blockade.
I'm sorry, your analogy just doesnt work. yes there would be some attempts at international interference and shitpot stirring in that scenario, but Mexico is in a very poor position to defend itself if they were ever invaded. The Americans biggest problem would be internal protest and internal violence.
Would the US Navy be able to block every Chinese container ship to approach the whole of the Americas? Note, they aren't warships, they are there for trade, legitimate trade actually. Would it be able to stop every ship the Chinese might be able to charter? Even searching those ships would be an insane task. Would they be able to check under every crate of bananas whether there is a guided missile hiding in there? Would they be able to do that without the oligarchs who will be bleeding money screeching bloody murder?
It would effectively have the US sanction itself, and cause the US to have larger problems than Mexican insurgents. Like the dollar being worth nothing. It's not 1940 anymore. The world is in this together, and our economies are tightly coupled enough that even sanctioning regional players like Russia have dire economic consequences.
And China would already be happy that the US is spending all that money maneuvering carrier groups around looking for 200 dollar assault rifles. Same logic as in Ukraine, one dollar spent in aid causes fifty in damage to the invaders' economy. And China can outmanufacture the US easily at this point.
They have enough to hurt a lot.
And they should have a nice big defensive WALL 🤣
And so far America has paid for it!
They have enough to hurt the American South.
The 'good' Texans need to be ready to leave. They've bitched and moaned about not being able to for so long. But if they don't do it soon, one way or another they'll lose the chance forever.
They need to get clear of the pigs living next door before the pigs or the Mexicans take up arms.
Don't forget: one side's soldiers present a far larger target area...
"betcha they won't see me, Sarge"
Thank you, I know this is the cheeto creating distractions, but we (mexicans) would not stand a chance against the USA if they actually decided they wanted our territory.
Our militia is a joke in comparison and the narcos (you know, the ones with better equipment, information and controlling the goverment) would hide, they would not fight at all.
Also the goverment has been doing their best antagonising the citizens and taking our rights away so... It would be a hard pill to swallow for everyone and arming the people you've been harassing and abusing doesn't sound like a great idea.
If the US invades Mexico it'll overrun it within a day, no doubt. However, look at Afghanistan, Iraq. Look at how the US got beat every time. Now remember what cartels do with their enemies and imagine how many soldiers hanging from bridges it would take for the US to call it quits. Remember how many cartel soldiers there already are in the US. What do you think the Latino community will do once the US army starts the eventual murder of innocent Mexican citizens...
The US invading México will end Mexico, it will also end the US
the US invading -anyone- who isn't already seen as an enemy of the nation by the PEOPLE of the nation, will trigger an actual shooting civil war.
and by that I mean, there aren't very many countries that the majority of American people truly see as an enemy, so thats basically Russia, Iran, North Korea, to some extent China. and a bunch of countries from the middle east , central america and southeast asia who have varying histories of things vaguely "islamist, terrorist, or communist"
Mexico, and Literal Allies like Canada and other NATO countries, are not on that list. starting a war with someone not on that list, will be a signal to everyone in America who isn't a brown nosing collaborator, that their own government is rogue and has to be toppled.
I would agree if I hadn't seen already so much complacency. People just don't give a shit and act like the frog in the slowly heating up pan. I'd hope you're right but I am not so sure
It's a bad comparison because México isn't all the way crossing an ocean, we are right here, keeping supplies and machines going would be extremely easier.
Cartels are NOT revolutionaries, they are opportunistic assholes, they attack and control places where nobody can fight back, they would be the first ones to flee/hide and would only come back after the conflict was over to try and keep their business going in one way or another.
I see 2 options... people keep trying to fight back until either they kills us all or enslave everyone due to broken morale, or enough people betray us wishing to be one of them (I can see the militia and goverment being the first ones to betray all of us) and it's over in no time.
I have no idea what fantasy you have about México but that's not it.
If the USA gets serious (like using anything remote like drones and missiles), it's over for us, we have nothing; if it's just posturing and they decide they want to toy with us by sending people to die and kill us slowly... then maybe, but again, they could end it in no time.
And the US would still lose, because that is what the US does best.
Yeah, it can invade the shit out of everywhere, but it never has been able to keep what it invaded. As soon as the dead bodies start coming back, politicians start screaming.
México can't stop the US from invading, of course, but guerilla warfare? Bring it on. US soldiers will be hanging from bridges and videos will be posted everywhere, it will be ugly. It will be the same as in Afghanistan, and they didn't have a lack of tech there, there weren't any logistics issues as the US simply has the best logistics of any army in the world.
Then there is the fact that the US has enormous Latino communities which will start pushing back at the least, fighting back more likely. This van lest to an uprising in their own country.
Invading México will destroy Mexico, but it will also tear the US to oieces
they're not talking about mexico or the cartels militarily defeating or resisting america, they're talking about america, thats a tinderbox that people feel is teetering on civil war for a long time now, will tear itself apart if a regime like MAGA starts shooting wars with its own neighbors.
the American people may have a deep distaste of the cartels, and want them dead, but they dont want Mexico attacked and blown up like they want for Iran, North Korea, China... and for a while until the gangsters came to power, Russia. There's no appetite for war. and opposition to Trump / Fascists know that war is a permanent seizure of power.
enough people saw what happened in Star Wars. people may be vapid and consumed by pop culture, but they're not totally stupid