ZMD: Yeah, that was actually my second question here. I was a little bit disappointed by the article, but the audio commentary was kind of worse. You open the audio commentary with:
"We have arrived at a moment when many in Silicon Valley are saying that artificial intelligence will soon match the powers of the human brain, even though we have no hard evidence that will happen. It's an argument based on faith."
End quote. And just, these people have written hundreds of thousands of words carefully arguing why they think powerful AI is possible and plausibly coming soon.
CM: That's an argument.
ZMD: Right.
CM: It's an argument.
ZMD: Right.
CM: We don't know how to get there.
ZMD: Right.
CM: We do not—we don't know—
ZMD: But do you understand the difference between "uncertain probabilistic argument" and "leap of faith"? Like these are different things.
CM: I didn't say that. People need to understand that we don't know how to get there. There are trend lines that people see. There are arguments that people make. But we don't know how to get there. And people are saying it's going to happen in a year or two, when they don't know how to get there. There's a gap.
ZMD: Yes.
CM: And boiling this down in straightforward language for people, that's my job.
ZMD: Yeah, so I think we agree that we don't know how to get there. There are these arguments, and, you know, you might disagree with those arguments, and that's fine. You might quote relevant experts who disagree, and that's fine. You might think these people are being dishonest or self-deluding, and that's fine. But to call it "an argument based on faith" is different from those three things. What is your response to that?
CM: I've given my response.
ZMD: It doesn't seem like a very ...
CM: We're just saying the same thing.
The lack of understanding that he is right here but only because the first sentence is not a sentence normal people understand, is jarring. (Metz is also correct in that these are saying the same thing). Just amazing.
He could say, 'i dont like you framing it as a religion" but that would give the objection away and also cedes the argument, as now it is about subjective framing. And Davis wants to make it feel like something else.
E: Metz must also be a bit confused, considering the stance of the Rationalist Scripture on cults (which was written in reaction to him writing an article): https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yEjaj7PWacno5EvWa/every-cause-wants-to-be-a-cult, and how it seems to hint at Yud fearing the place does become a cult. "This essay is not a catalog of techniques for actively pumping against cultishness. I’ve described some such techniques before, and I’ll discuss more later. Here I just want to point out that the worthiness of the Cause does not mean you can spend any less effort in resisting the cult attractor." And : "Cultishness is quantitative, not qualitative. The question is not, “Cultish, yes or no?” but, “How much cultishness and where?". (Prob one of the reasons Metz said the 'But you and so many others ... use the same language.' thing).
(Yes, im 'gotcha' quoting the bible at Catholics here).
From the comments:
Simulacrum level 1.
very not a cult phrasing
The irony being that rather than writing good SCP themselves, they'd make for even better subjects of containment & study.
Simulacrum level 1 features the swimming pool, exercise room, business center and continental breakfast lounge. Vending and ice machines are available on simulacrum level 2. In the event of a fire, please exit the simulacrum in an orderly manner using the stairs, not the elevators
This is in the running for most LW comment ever.