this post was submitted on 24 Aug 2025
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TechTakes

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Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.

This is not debate club. Unless it’s amusing debate.

For actually-good tech, you want our NotAwfulTech community

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Need to let loose a primal scream without collecting footnotes first? Have a sneer percolating in your system but not enough time/energy to make a whole post about it? Go forth and be mid: Welcome to the Stubsack, your first port of call for learning fresh Awful you’ll near-instantly regret.

Any awful.systems sub may be subsneered in this subthread, techtakes or no.

If your sneer seems higher quality than you thought, feel free to cut’n’paste it into its own post — there’s no quota for posting and the bar really isn’t that high.

The post Xitter web has spawned soo many “esoteric” right wing freaks, but there’s no appropriate sneer-space for them. I’m talking redscare-ish, reality challenged “culture critics” who write about everything but understand nothing. I’m talking about reply-guys who make the same 6 tweets about the same 3 subjects. They’re inescapable at this point, yet I don’t see them mocked (as much as they should be)

Like, there was one dude a while back who insisted that women couldn’t be surgeons because they didn’t believe in the moon or in stars? I think each and every one of these guys is uniquely fucked up and if I can’t escape them, I would love to sneer at them.

(Credit and/or blame to David Gerard for starting this.)

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[–] fullsquare@awful.systems 6 points 21 hours ago (4 children)
[–] scruiser@awful.systems 4 points 14 hours ago

I like how Zitron does a good job of distinguishing firm overall predictions from specific scenarios (his chaos bets) which are plausible but far from certain. AI 2027 specifically conflated and confused those things in a way that gave it's proponents more rhetorical room to hide and dodge.

[–] Architeuthis@awful.systems 6 points 17 hours ago (1 children)

Zitron taking every opportunity to shit on Scott's AI2027 is kind of cathartic, ngl

[–] scruiser@awful.systems 4 points 14 hours ago

I like how he doesn't even bother debunking it point by point, he just slams the very premise of it and moves on.

[–] fullsquare@awful.systems 3 points 19 hours ago

it's a long one and right behind paywall there's a

Table Of ContentsHow I Am Justifying "Guessing" NVIDIA, And What Will Happen Soonest Nevertheless, NVIDIA Will Accelerate The Collapse If Its Stock Falters Big Tech's Bubble Burst Moment Will Be When Growth Slows Capital Expenditures Are The Next Thing To Go CoreWeave — A Timebomb For The Markets and AI Writ Large How Does CoreWeave Collapse? The End Of AI Startup Funding How The Collapse Of Funding Begins — A Scenario (Chaos Bet) Costs Are A Brewing Scandal In Generative AI — Another Chaos Bet The Curious World of Anthropic and OpenAI, And My Own Suspicions About Their Businesses How About Anthropic's Costs? An Important Note: Anthropic and OpenAI's Costs Are Dramatically Underrepresented Because Neither Company Pays For The Construction Of (Or Owns) Their Infrastructure Questions About OpenAI's Revenue And Costs OpenAI Is Using Cal State's "Edu" Contracts To Pump Its Paid Business User Numbers — And It's Unclear How Long It Keep A User In Its Numbers What About Government Contracts? OpenAI Is Using "$1 for a Month" Subscription Deals On Teams To Juice Business User Numbers — And Offering Deals For ChatGPT Plus For $10-a-month To Stop User Churn (REMINDER: OpenAI Loses Money On Every User Anyway) I Believe OpenAI's Costs Are Worse Than They Seem — Where Is All The Money Going? OpenAI Will Burn At Least $3 Billion On Salaries In 2025, And May Spend As Much As $8 Billion — With Any Layoffs Guaranteeing An Industry-Wide Panic Compute Costs Are Likely Astronomical, Burning At Least $15 Billion — If Not $20 Billion — In 2025 Alone OpenAI Is Bleeding Out, And Could Run Out Of Money By End Of Year Chaos Bet: Microsoft Kills OpenAI By Blocking Its Non-Profit Conversion Even If Microsoft Agrees, OpenAI Does Not Have Enough Time To Convert To A For-Profit By The End Of The Year Chaos Pick: OpenAI Does Not Convert, And Does Not Receive More Money From SoftBank Alternate Chaos Pick: OpenAI Does Convert, But SoftBank Can't Get The Money How Does OpenAI (or Anthropic) IPO? I Believe Both OpenAI and Anthropic May Be Overstating Revenues And User Numbers, Using The Media To Launder Their Reputations What Happens Next? So Why Did You Say 2027?