this post was submitted on 06 Sep 2023
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As of July, grocery inflation was still up over 8%. Sure, it's slowing, but that's a significant increase in costs for most Canadians.
The good news is that it's just the delayed response to the 2021/2022 food production seasons, which saw the farm gate price go to the moon – or maybe more like Alpha Centauri. Major weather-related crop loss in 2020, followed by Europe shutting down fertilizer plants in 2021, and Russia invading Ukraine in 2022 was not kind to food buyers. You didn't have to pay then, but the piper has to be paid eventually.
The farm gate price has moderated substantially this year. Food and fertilizer stocks are returning, and we have a better understanding of what is going on in Ukraine. As such, food off the farm is now only worth a fraction of what it was. As food is mostly secured on futures contracts, the grocery store buyers are still living in 2021/2022, but the price will come down for them too once the consumer catches up with newer contracts.
Same as usual.