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this post was submitted on 26 Dec 2023
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Asklemmy
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I think you underestimate the amount of possibilities in life. Even 5 billion tries isn't all that much.
Edit: The below is all wrong, I'm good at abstract maths and really shit at numbers, forgive me.
I think you missed me saying "compared to a single human life." Sure, there's no way literally everyone will get "the best possible life" or something, but a single person has very roughly 5ร10^9ร10^10รท10^2 is 5ร10^17 attempts assuming a 100 year life span.
And you only have to get it once, ultimately the probability depends on whatever the criteria here is, which frankly I don't know, assuming it just means "is a billionaire" that's around a 2ร10^-7 chance each time, assuming 2000 ish billionaires in a 10^10 population.
I tried plugging this into a binomial calculator but it couldn't process it, but regardless that's going to be some really good chances.
How do you get 5x10^17 attempts with the lifespan of the sun being 5x10^10 years?
Regardless, they said everyone. They also said the best life possible. That postulates some absolute max for a person. Not some random criteria you can think of.
Sorry, I did shower maths and that's always a bad idea. Ignore that whole thing. What I was thinking made sense in one particular way, but not in the way I had intended, so it's completely meaningless.
On the criteria, the absolute maximum implies having a criteria and I just chose the assumption that essentially infinite money would give you the best chance of having "the best possible life." I was just aiming for something order of magnitude so had to choose something arbitrarily.
If you can even define the best possible life in a meaningful way, then I'd say it's absolutely 0% chance because to me, a single day of winter ruins it.