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this post was submitted on 12 Jan 2024
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The Biden campaign is right that it's way too early to be panicing about a 1% gap in polling. But they shouldn't be taking anyone's vote for granted.
There was record turnout in 2020. Biden won more votes than any candidate had in the past.... But so did Trump! His 74M vote total would have won any other election.
Biden can easily lose this election by turning off a small portion of his supporters and driving them either to a 3rd party, or to stay at home. And, well, calling them "bed-wetters" will not encourage them to remain supportive.
He'd be better off improving his policy around Israel than wincing at 1% poll numbers.
If any single issue is going to lose him the election, it's that one.
Trump’s policy would be the same things but worse. So, people thinking they’ll sit it out or oppose Biden aren’t really thinking this through.
Nevertheless, they exist. The party regards them with contempt at everyone's peril.
Of course, Biden shouldn't be supporting genocide in any event because it's genocide.
I agree. The Dems are doing a pretty crappy job, like they did in 2015-16. I have no idea why Biden think he needs to run again when he could pass the torch to someone like Newsom and it would be much more energizing. It's pretty egotistical of him when he already said he wasn't going to run a 2nd time, and I don't get this "only I can beat trump" idea he has. I don't think it was true in 2020 and it's not now. And yes, the Israel support needs to go, but of course, it's not only Biden - it's a wide swath of politicians in Congress from both parties who are happy to give Israel a blank check and look the other way. That needs to change somehow and it would take a lot more than a presidential election.
I wouldn't blame them for hating the fact that the options are murdering children or murdering children even harder.
But then I'd tell them this is America and if there's one thing that's been consistent throughout our history it's been murdering children so if you want something else you'll have to move.
This is true. We are not presented with a choice about this, same as many other issues such as capitalism and corporate power.
I’d also look at Ukraine and domestic issues however. Trump enthusiastically embraced ultra fucked up policies like splitting up migrant children from their parents. He also declared he’d build camps in the US for immigrants.
Trump also would hand over Ukraine to Putin. And it’s not just Trump, it’s the majority of new school R politicians who want to end aid.
So, while the US is fucked on Israel policy, there are still options about how much harm you’d like kids in other countries to come to.
I don't vote on whether they'll stop killing kids, because they won't. I vote on whether they'll be sad about it.
Which they also won't.
It's nice to pretend sometimes
There's a significant Muslim population in swing states like Michigan. You think they'll really come out in droves to support someone who wouldn't do the slightest push back against a genocide? That the other guy is worse doesn't matter, they'll sit it out, leave the President line blank or vote third party.
Yes, that’s the problem. People who otherwise would vote for a Democratic admin are being turned off and we will end up with something worse in a dozen respects because people can’t really think strategically. Trump and DeSantis have called for genocide IN THE US, so maybe that’s not great criteria.
The options are "genocide" and "more genocide."
Biden shouldn't be supporting genocide at all.
i expect to have at least 4 options on my ballot.
I expect "not genocide" to be at least one option on mine.
That would be nice. His admin should obviously be way more firm against Israel. Americans are obviously not being properly represented by either party. The proper thing to do would to pressure Democrats in Congress and the Biden admin without giving up and tossing the election to the fascists, which seems to be where it's headed.
I find it interesting that of all the issues that centrist Democrats could have finally chosen to actually stand firm on, it would be support for genocide. And they don't care if it costs them the election. Centrist Democrats would rather have genocide and lose than no genocide and win.
If Biden wants the votes of people for whom genocide is a dealbreaker, he can't continue supporting genocide. It's as simple as that.
It's basically that our electoral system is about fully decayed, as far as the influence of money, and the Israel lobby has been very strong for quite some time. I don't think they're picking to support Israel because they truly care one way or the other, rather that they do believe it's politically expedient.
Centrist Democrats are basically the Republicans of the 80s. We don't really have much representation on the left at all.
Trump couldn't pull of a genocied, he couldn't even build a damn wall. The president is not a dictator he can't singlehandedly do that, and no one's gonna vote for someone actively killing their family instead of someone who might be able to kill their family. Especially when that other person was president for four years and didn't kill their family. Be mad at it if you want but that's the votes you necessarily lose.
It’s not Trump who actually does anything. It’s the long line of cruel ideologues and grifters he puts in his administration like Steven Miller, and the police-military complex they’ve built up like ICE. And of course the Trump admin can and would give Israel weapons and money as easily as Biden.
None of that is gonna make those people vote for Biden though. No ones going to choose certain death over the unknown. Trump couldn't build a wall and failed setting up a South American coup. South American coups are like what the US does best. You lose those voters when you stand with Israel like Biden has. You can't 'but Trump' those people back to the polls.
Trump isn't in any way an unknown and he's made his 'policy' opinions extremely clear, to the extent anything he says is clear. He also had 4 years of a presidency with a pretty shitty record on just about everything except getting abortion banned, packing courts with religious ideologues, and tax cuts for rich people. This next election is just as much 'oh please anyone but fucking trump' as the last one, and Biden did have tons of people voting against Trump as much as voting for Biden. But sure, Americans love this stupid "Let's give the other party a chance" thing and have short memories and poor sources of information.
Should Biden be running only on "I'm not Trump"? No, of course not. It is still a factor though and he might actually have a harder time against a different opponent. I would love for someone younger and sharper like Gavin Newsom to step up, but both national parties are in shambles right now - the RNC with their near-total ownership by Trump, and the Democrats doing the same stupid shit they did when Bernie was running and not giving other candidates a fair chance.
The wall was a very unrealistic idea all along, so of course it wasn't built. Trump didn't care. It was a campaign device and a grift. The border is huge, and it would take a very long time to build a permanent wall, plus the funding - anyone with an IQ over room temp knew "Mexico will pay for it" was absurd.
But sure, I can't imagine Muslims wanting to vote for Biden either. But considering Trump is an out-and-out racist asshole, well, great. As for most of the rest of the country there are no good choices here.
Quickly followed by Trump's fascist regime stripping their citizenship, birthright or otherwise & exiling them from the USA.
Legally, thanks to the christofascists on SCotUS.
Don't say it can't happen here. It will.
So we need to do what we can to get the anti-genocide people back on our side.
Biden may have to accept that genocide isn't as popular with voters as it is with centrist Democrats.
Yes, notice how we are now making noises about stopping aide to Israel.
You want stuff to happen immediately. That's not how geopolitics & treaties has ever worked.
Selling them arms was optional. No one was clamoring for it.
Hey, if Biden cared about the country enough to not let christofascists win, maybe he should do popular stuff that people like. People would probably prefer their genocide money to go towards healthcare instead.
I don't really think that this 'It's either Biden or Trump!' mentality is helpful. If the DNC wanted to, they could present a different, more appealing candidate. We haven't even reached the primary yet. We don't even know for sure that Trump will be able to run yet. If the most appealing thing about Biden is that he isn't Trump, clearly he shouldn't be the candidate.
I’d love for it to be a different candidate than Biden. There’s no guarantee whoever else they come up with would be better on this issue though. It’s a sizable group but a minority of D politicians who oppose the current policy of giving Israel weapons.
Still though, another Trump admin would be an unprecedented complete clusterfuck of a disaster, so I don’t really care whether if it’s Biden or Jiminy Cricket, just not that insufferable deranged criminal again.
Even if not Trump, republicans have fallen over themselves to express the most support of the current government of Israel and their policies. At this point non Trump R candidates leading are Haley and DeSantis, who would hardly say “you know, we need to pressure Israel to stop and we’re increasing humanitarian programs in Gaza”.
I understand that, but the point I'm trying to make is that the "Vote for Biden if you don't want Trump!" argument is bad, and if you really want to convince people to vote for Biden, why not appeal to the good things he's done and could do, rather than just a fear of the bad things a Republican administration would do? We're all tired of hearing 'You have to vote for bad if you don't want worse!'. It worked in 2020 because everyone was reeling from the Trump administration already, but it's been 4 years, it's not as fresh in everyone's mind, and I really don't think it's going to be as effective this year. Even with it being fresh in everyone's mind, it was still a scarily close race.
I feel like Biden has put together a competent administration and has accomplished some positive things for people. They could do better at messaging about that.
However, my comments are based on this one issue which other people brought up, not me. It’s simply a fact that any Republican admin would be worse about war and human rights, because they always have been.
I just gave you a few examples of why that's a false dilemma.
It's only bad if you don't understand Duvinger's Law or how the DNC's bylaws work.
Voting is a chess move, not a love letter. The sooner you learn that, the happier you will be.
I think you're taking my posts out of context. They're direct replies to someone making the argument, 'Vote for Biden because otherwise you get Trump!', and I'm pointing out that the argument is bad, then you're replying to me telling me the argument is bad. Yes, I understand that - that's why I posted the reply.
Chess is a representation of a monarchy in which everyone but the king is ultimately expendable.
Completely irrelevant.
Chess is a logic game.
Say the pawns that don't think they're expendable.
But it's not. The appealing thing about Biden is he's quite literally got more Progressive action done in his first term than the last two Democratic presidents combined.
The reality about Biden is he's the most progressive president we've had since FDR.
That was really a reference to the fact that every time this comes up, the automatic, repeated response is, "You have to vote for Biden if you don't want Trump!" - it's almost the entire argument in favor of voting for him.
I'm not going to deny that he's done a lot of good things, and tried to do more only to get shut down by the other branches of government, but his Israel policy is really casting a shadow over everything else, for me personally, at least.
What has Biden done on the level of LBJ's Medicare? What's his equivalent of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, or the 1964 Civil Rights Act?
What has Biden done on the level of Obama's ACA?
Putting a finer point on this: Biden's Inflation Reduction Act does less for the environment than Nixon's EPA did. Nixon.
I get that you want support from progressives for pretending to want progressive shit, but no. Biden is not the most progressive anything. It's insulting to expect progressives to buy that.
Who cares what Trump might do, people need to focus on what Biden is actually doing.l and not give him a pass because orange man scary.
Before 2020 we heard nothing but 'push him left after the election,' supporting him through genocide and putting profit over people by bombing Yemen is not pushing him left