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this post was submitted on 15 Apr 2024
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I don't know much about stocks, but on every time span chart this stock looks like it's in total disaster mode
https://www.cnn.com/markets/stocks/djt
I mean if you were looking at META in November 2023, you would say the same thing right? It was down 75% from ATH. It was dropping WAY faster than Truth social has been. I mean the metaverse? C'mon.
Since then its run up 500%. Is meta 500% more valuable than it was 2 years ago?
AMD ran up from $2 in 2016 to $160 today. That's a 8000% increase. Did they start doing 80x the business?
Prices don't mean shit. Fundamentals don't mean shit. Nothing means anything. Its bullshit stacked on bullshit stacked on bullshit.There is no inherent meaning to price and value. Its all relative made up bullshit. Its not untrue to say that its all a fugazi. You just gotta appreciate that its all made up before you wade in.
I assume you're talking about November 2022, because Meta is only up 50% from November 2023. Meta was oversold in 2022 and was at prices not seen since 2015. Do you think Meta was a better company in 2022 than in 2015?
There was a general selloff in tech at the time. You can argue that some companies are overvalued now, but Meta in particular has a PE of 34. It's probably a bit expensive but it makes a lot of money every year. It's only issue now is how they can grow once everyone has a Facebook account.
Like, its easy to come up with reasons why things happen after the fact.
You seem to have some decently strong belief that you know whats going on. How much money were you able to make off of Facebooks moves throughout that period?
My guess is you probably didn't make a bet. Or maybe you did. I'd be actually very interested to hear if you did one way or another. If you bet line go up, you were making a gamble. If you bet line go down, you were making a gamble. If your thesis only predicts the past, what am I supposed to do with it?
And thats my broader point. The rules are made up and the points don't matter. Its all a game of perception. Are valuations forward facing or are they based on fundamentals? Are fundamentals even relevant in a market this detached or should we really be focusing on Jensen Huangs leather jacket?
Teslas market cap is 512 B. Toyotas market cap is 395 B. Toyota is doing 250 B in revenue and Tesla is doing 20 B in revenue:
If valuations are forward facing, then what are the valuing? If the game was made sense, a simple slide ruler is all you would need to win the game.
The stock market is just voting in the short term but it's weighing in the long term. Fundamentals work, but sometimes markets are irrational. This is not new. Things have always been this way.
If you don't like it, you need to invest in Treasury Bills.
Cool, it sounds like you’re getting it. Read “Trading & Exchanges” by Harris and “Reminisces of a Stock Operator” by Lefevre about Jesse Livermoore. Just a suggestion