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this post was submitted on 03 Jun 2024
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I share your optimism but not because I put my faith in the guys (not) pushing the button. Putin at his core and in terms of where he's coming from is a small time FSB thug who made it too big for his own good. Perpetualizing corruption to keep himself in power and amassing enormous wealth at the cost of his people was fun for about one and a half decades. What does a kid do when it gets bored of its newest toy? It demands more of course. There is no nuclear option because little Vladimir knows at that point his days of demanding more will be counted. No more backing from big brother Xi. And all the reason for NATO to actually step in.
Some draw the analogy that you never know what a cornered Pitbull is gonna do but I don't see that being applicable. His recent job reassignments show that he does not feel safe in his position as de-facto dictator anymore. He is much more worried for his domestic survival right now than anything going down on the international stage. He can't nuke his own mutineers thus he needs to keep everyone in rotation so their levels of influence don't get out of hand.
I can't tell you what endgame there is left for Vladolf Putler. The only way onward is to keep the war going, which probably will require a full transition to a wartime economy sooner than later, but he probably doesn't want that toll on the Russian people. Nuclear weapons would mean the opposite of keeping the war of attrition going and he knows that.