48
Fun.
“I was on my couch watching Adventure Time when World War III started.”
Fuck me. I just came in from yard work. "I was touching grass." It's not any better.
100% I have no confidence in Israel's ability to comply with international law or humanitarian norms. As a jew, I am less safe because of Israel's genocide of the Palestinians. There is no interest in self-defense or defeating terrorists. Netanyahu wants to prolong the war to stay out of prison and to create a greater Israel. Israel attacking the UN troops has really ticked me off too.
It’s not that they don’t have the ability. They just don’t care.
Just after the markets close, Monday is gonna be interesting
That might indicate that this really is a proportional response, the kind that Iran has already signaled they would not retaliate against.
By giving the market the weekend to confirm that Israel has not significantly escalated over Iran's attack, it could very well temper market movement. Especially if it's confirmed they did not strike any energy infrastructure.
Of course this is israel, so unless America behind the scenes is actually applying pressure for once, they could decide to strike all of their oil facilities tomorrow.
I guess we'll see soon enough.
That might indicate that this really is a proportional response, the kind that Iran has already signaled they would not retaliate against.
Ehh...Iran said that they would respond against attacks on their "territorial sovereignty" or something similar, if I recall, which would be basically any attack against Iran's territory. I don't think that they said anything about proportionality. At least not that I saw (and I'd been searching Google News and similar repeatedly for a while).
That being said, there's rhetoric and there's action.
Back after the Iranian attack, Netanyahu said something about the people of Iran being free from their regime sooner than one might think or something like that, which could certainly be taken as indication of taking out the Iranian leadership, and unless there's more going on than what's in the news and Israel has announced, I don't think that Israel's trying to topple Iran's government.
But, yeah, we'll see what comes next.
No, I'm referring to back channel reports where Iran was relaying something along the lines of the "acceptable targets" where they would not retaliate, or at least not escalate. Including certain types of military bases and facilities.
While have no doubt that the IRGC headquarters was not included on that list, as it's "proportional" to targeting Mossad HQ, I think it's possible they could lump it in with the other acceptable strikes.
That is, assuming that reporting was even accurate, and if it was, that they'll extend additional restraint for the IRGC strike.
Again, if that reporting was accurate, and if this attack was more or less in line with it, I think it's extremely likely that the reasoning would be that the US government applied real pressure for the first time during this conflict.
However, that is a lot of what ifs, and assumptions, and it's probably just as likely, if not more likely, that they're all shit.
Guess we'll see.
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-826117
Five explosions were reported heard across Tehran and the nearby city of Karaj early on Saturday morning, according to Iranian media, in what is alleged to be the beginning of an Israeli retaliatory attack on Iran.
A second wave of airstrikes was reported following blasts heard in Shiraz later on early Saturday morning.
I don't immediately know what the significance of those locations are, and there's probably more-detailed information coming shortly, but I imagine that that alone is probably enough to give people who have been looking at the matter an idea of what likely targets were.
EDIT: Oh, wait, missed this bit (or it was added after I initially read the article):
Israel reportedly attacked the location of the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps in Iran.
Several of the strikes in Tehran targeted military bases across southern and southwestern Tehran, according to Iranian media.
Reports of explosions at the Imam Khomeini International Airport in the Iranian capital were also received, however Iranian officials denied anything was wrong.
EDIT2: Yeah, apparently they've been updating the article, whether or not that bit was already there.
EDIT3: I didn't look at what-all was known about the intended targets of the Iranian ballistic missile strike a while back, but I do recall that it included Israeli airbases and Mossad's headquarters. Hitting the IRGC headquarters and Iranian airbases would be analogous, I suppose, so that'd make sense if Israel's intent is to have an attack that mirrors the targets of the Iranian attack.
EDIT4: An anonymous Israeli military source was quoted on CNN's liveblog as saying that no energy targets were attacked, only military.
EDIT5: Israel's foreign ministry also announced on Twitter (and probably elsewhere) that they were striking military targets, and I'd take that as more authoritative than whatever anonymous source CNN had.
EDIT6: Barrons reports that "Iran State TV Says At Least Six Blasts Heard Around Tehran", so I guess that gives an idea as to scope.
EDIT7: This has some information as to attack composition:
https://jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-826126
Over 100 planes were involved in the attack on Iran on Saturday, including the cutting-edge F-35.
Israel’s preliminary strike on radar targets in Syria was aimed at “blinding” Iran’s capabilities, quickly escalating into an offensive targeting Tehran and Karaj, Iran’s capital and another strategic location.
The IDF confirmed the operation focused strictly on military targets, steering clear of nuclear and oil facilities to prevent wider conflict escalation. High alert remains as Israel anticipates potential retaliation, not only from Iran.
This large-scale assault involved over 100 aircraft, including F-35 “Adir” stealth fighters, covering approximately 2,000 kilometers. According to foreign reports, strikes focused on Tehran and Karaj, with the IDF stating that each wave targeted military sites exclusively, mitigating further conflict risks.
I don't have the familiarity with the matter to say off-the-cuff myself, but there does appear to be an Iranian air base at Shiraz.
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/iran/shiraz.htm
So, couple guesses on my part, prior to information coming in:
-
If the attack is over -- which I don't know, but I don't think that there'd be a reason to have it run over an extended period of time -- and if these reports as to explosions are accurate, it is probably far smaller than the Iranian attack to which it was a response. That attack included 200 ballistic missiles. On the other hand, if -- and we don't know this yet, though I'm sure it'll be in the news shortly -- Israel actually hit IRGC headquarters, they probably caused more damage and killed more people than the Iranian strike; the missile fired at Mossad's headquarters was inaccurate and hit an area by a nearby road, as I recall, and a number of the missiles were intercepted.
-
If Israel is aiming to mirror the Iranian attack in particulars, not just targets, the Iranian attack included two waves. I don't know why Israel would do that unless it had something to do with intended damage by Iran, but thought it'd be worth a mention, since knowing when the Israeli attack is complete would be interesting information.
Did 200 missiles hit their targets though? Israel has F35's that can basically guarantee to hit any target they like, Iran has to assume 90% of their missiles will be intercepted.
Most of Iran's missiles were intercepted.
Israel isn't going to fly F-35s into Iran, least of all because there's a couple countries in between (by land, anyway).
this post was submitted on 26 Oct 2024
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