40
C. Just get it over with. Can't wait for the spin and reshoot.
Spoiler:
Tap for spoiler
0/6 chance to live <β actually Iβm probably wrong about this one, I missed the βspin after each pullββ¦ should be (5/6)^6 chance to live (~34%)
2/3 * 2/3 * 2/3 chance to live = 8/27 chance to live (~30%)
2/6 chance to live (~33%)
I'd go with C. Here are my MENTAL maths for odds of survival:
- A: (5/6)^6
- B: (4/6)^3 = (2/3)^3 = 8/27
- C: 2/6 = 1/3 = 9/27
C is clearly better than B. I have no clue how much A is, but it follows the same basic reasoning as B, so it's probably worse than C too.
Spoilers:
spoiler
A > C > B in terms of survival, or you could reverse it if you want to die and end your misery. Choices choices... π
Who wants to live forever anyway? :-PDiscussion
I did the maths after commenting. (5/6)βΆ = 33.49%, not too far from 1/3 = 33.33%.
That's a fun game by the way!
Your misery will be greatly reduced if you live and are released.
Either way you're good.
load more comments
(1 replies)
Attempts to end your own life is illegal
What are they gonna do? Kill me?
Also, I'm gonna say B before doing the math.
I've done the math, I think.
Okay, the probability of living is the amount of unloaded chambers over the amount of chambers in total to the power of the amount of shots taken. Given that, we can conclude that...
- Option A (
(5/6)^6) gives you a 33.49% chance of survival, - Option B (
(4/6)^3) gives you a 29.63% chance of survival, and - Option C (
(2/6)^1) gives you a 33.33% chance of survival
So, turns out, I've chosen the worst odds. Whoops. However, they're so close that it honestly doesn't matter that much.
Also, sorry to those whose clients don't do spoilers. I'm with you on that one, I use Eternity.
load 4 chambers, attempt to take a guard or 4 with me
π€£
Lol you're not loading it, the executioner is.
You're just voicing your choice.
To the guards, "I choose the four bullets... But not for me!"
Off the top of my head, I think the best chances of survival are: C, A, B. I'm not sure about A vs. C, because A's total odds are hard to calculate in my head, while C is exactly 1/3 (33.33%).
The reason A is better than B is that a 1/6 chance of dying, twice, is better than a 2/6 chance of dying, once. They might seem at first like the same, but consider that one of those 36 chances in the A case is where you get shot twice in a row. That's no worse than a regular death. So it comes out to only 11/36 of dying in the first two rounds of A, but 12/36 of dying in the first one round of B.
spoiler
Using a calculator. it turns out A is actually 0.16% better than C. They're really about the same.
I would choose option C.
4/6 loaded and 1 pull.
Deciding within 30 seconds, C. B is clearly worse and math seems to imply similar odds for A but it takes too long to calculate.
Gut says C feels safer and definitely less torturous so I chose C. Turns out A is better but only by 0.1% so not worth the wait.
I'd choose C and in a cheesy super villain voice say "look me in the eyes when you do it"
Executioner is a robot, feels no emotion
π₯π«π€
Segue, what makes you more comfortable for B?
This ππππππ
Or
That ππππππ
My first read I missed that the you were spinning the chamber between shots. I was thinking people pick B assuming its the first one and then get fucked the second way
Anyway, I think I'd go with C. If it's going to happen, it's going to happen, and I didn't get to death row by not believing in instant gratification
!wouldyourather@lemmy.dbzer0.com
I'm not taking their offer, better certain death than an unknown.
That is a WILD take, man. If youβre serious, youβre a new kind of person Iβve never met before.
This might count as "unusual" punishment, but imo it's far less cruel than what's usually on the table on death row
After quick math, I'll choose B. I believe it has 50% success rate.
Edit: oh no, "spinning after each shot"
Guessed A then looked in the comments and that looked to be the best option so now I'm gonna roll some dice to see if I got released or not
Edit: aw beans
A. It's either A or B, something about the fractions, but it'll take me more than 30 seconds to reason it out.
Edit: rip, nevermind, they're all about equal
A
After 30 seconds: still A
spoiler
Congrats, you found the highest odds of survival at 33.335%
Downside is, you get to be shitting your pants for 6 revolver spins. π
C is 33.333% slightly lower, but its only one and done. No shitting in pants needed.
I died on the 5th round. 3,3,5,5,1
Nice knowing you!
ATM, I probably shouldn't be left with a gun and a choice. I don't care how many you load or if you spin. I would ask them if they would like to have a real conversation? They seem like an interesting type of person to get talking openly.
Seems like 1:6 Γ 6 is the most survivable as I intuit the problem. The previous shots have no bearing on the statistics of the next.
E: So yeah, the weight of the bullets spinning out of balance likely has more than a 1% bearing on the outcome. Statistics irrelevant IMO... but that is what a loser would say.
The previous shots do matter. Because for you to even reach the 6:th shot, all previous attempts have to be in your favor.
It's (5/6) you'll live each pull. But to reach pull #2 you'll have to survive the first. To reach pull #3 you have to survive the first 2.
You're looking at events that have to take place is a specific order. You have to multiply each pull to work out the probability of this event following one of those orders. It will come out to (5/6)^6.
(5/6) is the probability you survive. And ^6 because you have to survive it 6 times.
You're looking at ~33% of getting empty slots 6 times in a row.
Previous attempts always have a bearing on statistics if things need to happen in a certain order.
I think there is some philosophical elements that invalidate this , or rather constrain the conclusions to an idealized mathematical irrelevance to the real world due to all the other uncertainties involved in the entropy of the universe all the way down.
One might argue that the statistics hold true with a large enough sample size. But what is the noise floor of such a sample size. When all the other real world uncertainties are accounted for, I believe these would accrue far greater than such a noise floor.
Nothing about the situation or mechanism in question is a known or consistent factor in this equation. The orientation, mechanical properties, internal friction, and force applied, should have a significant effect on the outcome of each spin. The distribution of bullets alone is a major factor and not specified. For instance, in the case of 4/6, one must assume the bullets include 2 sequential empty chambers, so how does the imbalance alter the probability. It is likely to have more of a tendency for those bullets to end in a gravitational low point, and therefore a statistically more likely chance for an empty chamber on top in the firing position.
The noise floor of all additional factors being larger than the statistical difference, IMO, means there is not relevance to the statistics outside of academia or situations where many millions of people are subjected to this method and the inputs are normalized with better constrained input factors. The actual sample size may need to be much larger. I'm just picking a big number from my little brain.
If the noise of all the unconstrained inputs is larger than the statistical difference, then the statistics don't matter at this scale for the individual.
In my experience, mechanical imbalances are an inherent feature of goods produced under capitalism. I likely have a higher probability that the mechanism will have a bad spot where the rotation tends to stop. With a lighter revolving load of a single bullet, this bad spot and behavior should be more prevalent. In all likelihood the single bullet will wind up within 1 chamber of the same point in each spin. The person loading the firearm likely knows this and may invalidate all statistics by simply choosing where to load the chamber. For instance perhaps I am the executioner and am telling you how I load the chamber depending on the size of your nose or how much I like you.
Ignoring loading bias, if the mechanism is indeed imbalanced, as it likely is, I have a much better probability of an empty chamber in a 1 of 6 scenario and a much higher probability of a similar result with a variance of Β±1. So I can largely invalidate the statistics of repetition and conclude that, if I survive the first turn, I am much more likely to survive subsequent turns. The result is that, within the real world factors, I have a much higher probability of survival... IMO.
load more comments
(4 replies)
I would choose not to take part in this stupid game.
But regarding your math, the option C has the highest chance of surviving
A: (5 * 5 * 5 * 5 * 5 * 5) / (6 * 6 * 6 * 6 * 6 * 6) = terribly low
B: (2 * 2 * 2) / (3 * 3 * 3) = something like 0.3
C: 1/3 = 0.33
Spoilers
spoiler
Chances of survival:
A: (5/6)^6 β 33.335%
B: (4/6)^3 β 30%
C: (2/6) = 33.333%
How are you looking at ~15k / ~45k and deem that terribly low?
Does she spin before the first shot? Otherwise the bullet would always be in position to be fired. I assume so. Then option C, simply by expected value.
With 30 seconds being up, I must admit I can't calculate (5/6)^6 or (2/3)^3 fast enough to make a better comparison between the options.
Also, to be politically correct, what are my executioners pronouns? I just assumed she now, which may of course be offensive and I'm sorry for that.
Yea reworded the post
Edit: Your executioner is a robot, genderless. π
I'll pick B
C. I'm fine with either outcome. I'll be free.
Can I choose where I pull the trigger?
Cause I can make it the best or the worst funny ever.
Because the barrel is spun each time itβs a simple percentage assuming the weight of the bullets donβt affect the spin. A is 16.2% for each trigger pull. B is 33.3% chance each trigger pull. C is 66.7%. The chances donβt stack because the barrel is spun again before each shot.
By this logic, if you roll a die 1000 times, you have only a 1/6 chance to get at teast one 6.
That's not how statistics work.
Leta say you're on your 6:th shot on option A.
For you to even get there, it requires all previous attempts to be in your favor. You're looking at events that all have to happen in a favorable order. And that is as follows
5/6 chance you live after the first time. (5/6)^2 chance you live after the second. (Because you have to survive the first) (5/6)^3 chance you live after the third. (Because you have to survive the first AND the second) .... and so on until (5/6)^6 ~ 33%
Think about flipping a coin. Do you really think getting 6 heads in a row is 50/50? The coin is "reset" between each flip. But it's not a 50/50 chance to get 6 heads in a row. If you don't believe me. Try it and see. According to statistics. It will take you 64 attempts to get 6 heads in a row.
load more comments
(3 replies)
C.
view more: next βΊ
this post was submitted on 30 Nov 2024
40 points (78.6% liked)
Ask Lemmy
27253 readers
1719 users here now
A Fediverse community for open-ended, thought provoking questions
Rules: (interactive)
1) Be nice and; have fun
Doxxing, trolling, sealioning, racism, and toxicity are not welcomed in AskLemmy. Remember what your mother said: if you can't say something nice, don't say anything at all. In addition, the site-wide Lemmy.world terms of service also apply here. Please familiarize yourself with them
2) All posts must end with a '?'
This is sort of like Jeopardy. Please phrase all post titles in the form of a proper question ending with ?
3) No spam
Please do not flood the community with nonsense. Actual suspected spammers will be banned on site. No astroturfing.
4) NSFW is okay, within reason
Just remember to tag posts with either a content warning or a [NSFW] tag. Overtly sexual posts are not allowed, please direct them to either !asklemmyafterdark@lemmy.world or !asklemmynsfw@lemmynsfw.com.
NSFW comments should be restricted to posts tagged [NSFW].
5) This is not a support community.
It is not a place for 'how do I?', type questions.
If you have any questions regarding the site itself or would like to report a community, please direct them to Lemmy.world Support or email info@lemmy.world. For other questions check our partnered communities list, or use the search function.
6) No US Politics.
Please don't post about current US Politics. If you need to do this, try !politicaldiscussion@lemmy.world or !askusa@discuss.online
Reminder: The terms of service apply here too.
Partnered Communities:
Logo design credit goes to: tubbadu
founded 2 years ago
MODERATORS