this post was submitted on 13 Mar 2025
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[–] cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml 43 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago) (3 children)

Western MSM lying as usual. Putin didn't reject anything. He basically said "we are open to a ceasefire, but under the following conditions:" proceeding to lay out a number of issues that need to be resolved first. So I'm gonna copy-paste the same phrase the westoids love so much lately: "the ball is now in the USA/Ukraine's court". It's up to them if they want to reject Putin's proposal ¯_(ツ)_/¯

[–] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 30 points 6 days ago (3 children)

I mean he rightly rejected the idea of a 30 day ceasefire without any conditions. He's basically saying, sure we can have a ceasefire after the following conditions are met:

  • No NATO membership for Ukraine
  • No NATO "peacekeepers" in Ukraine
  • Ukraine is denazified/demilitarised
  • The 4 Donbass regions are recognised as Russian territories plus Crimea

I expect Trump admin will ultimately gonna take the deal because their other option is to just cut and run. The deal will at least let the US normalize relations with Russia while cutting and running would just be humiliation.

[–] cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml 25 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago) (1 children)

The US made a proposal, Russia is making a counter-proposal. This is how negotiations are conducted. Westerners seem to think that the way it works is US and Ukraine negotiate something between themselves and just go and present that to Russia to accept. That's now how it works, that is just the same side talking to itself.

I'm simplifying here because this is the way we should be talking about this to liberals.

Of course you are right on what the subtext here was. What is actually happening is that Russia is simply playing the same game it always does: Putin being extremely diplomatic and careful not to look like he's closing any doors, meanwhile his staff, Lavrov and so on, telling it bluntly like it is, laying out what Russia's position is, what it will accept and what it won't.

The western media can spin it however they like but for the rest of the world this will look like Russia being reasonable and open to proposals, while also being realistic. Putin managed to deftly avoid the PR trap the Americans set here. And it's not like it was hard to see that this is what was coming. Putin was never just going to say flat out "no", but he also wasn't going to let himself be trapped by such an obvious, noobish ploy.

This was noob shit from the Trump team. Even Biden's people would have done a better job laying a trap. I don't know how they thought this would work. If there is anything Russia knows it's how to maneuver diplomatically.

[–] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 21 points 6 days ago

Oh yeah no argument there. In general, I've always found the trend of western politicians negotiating with themselves and then just expecting Russia to agree to that hilarious. It never works out for them, but they keep doing it.

[–] darkcalling@lemmygrad.ml 9 points 6 days ago (2 children)

I expect Trump will try and get concessions on at least one of those from Putin and I would not be surprised if Putin ultimately agrees on something in exchange for US support in doing regime change in Ukraine so Russia doesn't have to push its military force all the way to the far west of the country and try and deal with dismantling the whole thing itself. No NATO is too important to give up. No NATO peacekeepers the same (at least in any meaningful number). That leaves the options of Trump demanding and getting something like denazification not being completed though they are demilitarized in exchange Russia gets the 4 Donbass regions and Crimea recognized and the rest of Ukraine becomes a rump state of extremely angry nationalists possibly under patrol by a UN mandate peacekeeping force instead of NATO which the west will spin as them stopping Russia from taking all of Ukraine.

I admit it's possible that Russia gets all its objectives but I have the feeling Putin would rather not fight Ukraine fall of Berlin style where the west supplies them to fight to the last Ukrainian and keeps the sanctions on and in order to get sanctions relief and international recognition for the territorial reality I expect Putin will be flexible in some way to allow the west some amount of cope-laden face-saving. Ukraine is going to get fucked over hard by western capitalists of course and I expect that any deal will include respecting their grabs of resources and possibly striking discount deals on minerals and such from the new Russian regions under decade+ contracts at very favorable terms for the west or something like that.

[–] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 15 points 6 days ago (1 children)

I really can't see Putin giving in on any of these myself. These are the red lines Russia outlined a while back, and they remained consistent on their position. If anything, I think it's likely that Russia plans to take more territory as opposed to less. The reality is that Russia is in a very strong bargaining position here. The US very clearly wants to extricate itself from the war, and time is on Russia's side. If the US doesn't accept the deal, then Russia will just continue to do what it's doing.

Furthermore, the Kursk collapse couldn't have come at a worse time for the US. There are pretty much no fortifications in the Sumy region, and Russia can just keep rolling all the way to Kiev from there. The AFU has no choice but to try and stop that by pulling troops from the southern front that's already collapsing. The longer the US waits to make a deal the strong position Russia will be in.

[–] SkingradGuard@lemmygrad.ml 12 points 6 days ago

God I hope the Trump admin keeps bickering with Ukraine and Europe to give them enough time to humiliate themselves.

[–] OrnluWolfjarl@lemmygrad.ml 15 points 6 days ago

If I was Putin, I wouldn't agree to such a ceasefire. Denazification is a must at this point, along with all the other demands. If the nazis are left running whatever is left from Ukraine, in 10-20 years, this whole thing will be repeated again. We've seen how Syria turned out.

[–] AlbigensianGhoul@lemmygrad.ml 25 points 6 days ago (1 children)

One of my favourite things about lemmygrad is seeing informed comrades accurately predicting the near future through careful study. None of this "constant bewildered redditor" nonsense. I don't remember all the users predicting this, but well done y'all.

[–] PinkTankiePrincess@lemmygrad.ml 11 points 6 days ago

Marxists-Leninists have to bear the burden of being right all the time while liberals and anti-communist lefists screech at us.

[–] OrnluWolfjarl@lemmygrad.ml 8 points 6 days ago (2 children)

There's this theory circulating that the whole thing was a trap for Ukraine and Europeans to say they agree to a ceasefire, and that they await Putin's response. And if Putin responds "sure, and here's my conditions" (which he did), and US says "sure, let's talk about doing that", then the Ukrainians and Europeans can't back out without being seen as the unreasonable ones.

[–] cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml 13 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

Maybe. Personally though, i think that's too convoluted of a theory. I just don't think the Trump team are as smart as people seem to think they are. I don't think they're that subtle or think that far ahead. I think a lot of this is just improvisation. I don't think they're playing 4D chess, i think they're playing poker, with a very poor hand, and Russia is calling their bluff.

That's just my opinion.

[–] porcupine@lemmygrad.ml 11 points 6 days ago (1 children)

then the Ukrainians and Europeans can’t back out without being seen as the unreasonable ones

seen by whom as the unreasonable ones? isn't this exactly what they already did several times with Minsk?

[–] OrnluWolfjarl@lemmygrad.ml 5 points 6 days ago (1 children)

By their own citizens who they convinced Russia thirsts for their blood and homes.

[–] porcupine@lemmygrad.ml 9 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Where would these imperial citizens who believe that Russians are subhuman orcs craving white flesh hear about anything that contradicts that story? Certainly not from any "reputable" bourgeois media organization in their native language. Even if they did, what would it matter? Whether in the EU or the US, imperial policy isn't governed by public opinion. There's no neutral cosmic referee that's going to be persuaded to intervene if one party looks hypocritical enough

[–] OrnluWolfjarl@lemmygrad.ml 2 points 6 days ago

Oh for sure. No question there. I don't see it having this kind of outcome either. I do believe there's a possibility that the Trump administration thought of it this way however.

[–] SpaceDogs@lemmygrad.ml 27 points 6 days ago (2 children)

Typical woke war criminal Putin 🙄

[–] REEEEvolution@lemmygrad.ml 26 points 6 days ago

Mother of projection:

  • forces delight in utter sadism
  • sending child soldiers and amputees
[–] darkcalling@lemmygrad.ml 22 points 6 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

Woke war criminal Putin

Woke

lenin facepalm

WTF. At this point it doesn't even mean anything, woke is just an angry slur divorced even from the culture war pro-bigotry resentment that spurred them to use it hatefully in the first place in a forced appropriation of progressive terminology.

[–] starkillerfish@lemmygrad.ml 25 points 6 days ago

he literally said the opposite though. how is this journalism

[–] wanderwisley@lemm.ee 8 points 6 days ago

Stevie Wonder could have seen this coming.