this URL is the PDF of the NVCA-Pitchbook Venture Capital Monitor for Q1 2025
the Q3 2024 report was comedy gold, using word mangling to present bad news as okay news
i expect this one to be more of the same
Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.
This is not debate club. Unless it’s amusing debate.
For actually-good tech, you want our NotAwfulTech community
this URL is the PDF of the NVCA-Pitchbook Venture Capital Monitor for Q1 2025
the Q3 2024 report was comedy gold, using word mangling to present bad news as okay news
i expect this one to be more of the same
don't want to spam the stubsack with US politics but guys I am awfully scared
I hear you! If like me you have ever worried that you are overreacting; know that you are not. I have no idea how so many of my coworkers can just treat this all as politics as usual.
My heart breaks for the civilians rounded up and treated as terrorists without due process.
Being transgender I am acutely aware of how close I am to the top of the US autocracy's public enemy list. This is self serving but since January I've been working on getting while the getting is good (plus, I hate that my taxes go to the current federal government).
Me and my three siblings (a librarian, a researcher, and a med student) are all worried for our futures for different reasons; which is statistically just kind of impressive!
It really looks like it's on an awful trajectory.
In my teens I read about how Leo Szilard took a train out of Germany the day after the Nazis took power. Passed the border before border checks had time to come into force. Seemed obvious then, now I am all to aware of the problems of such a "simple" plan and the ties that binds you, not least family. And of course not knowing in advance how bad it will be, until after. And not knowing if you jump from the ashes and land in the fire, lots of countries are on the same trajectory but further back. Fascism is yet again the choice, the owners choice in the face of climate change.
I'm rambling and it's late. Sympathies and solidarity.
Yeah, it is fucking scary. My sympathies and solidarity. Small thing, perhaps a good reminder for everybody to check their opsec (esp if you are an administrator of things, check which data you do not need, or should not fall into the current (or future) us/other fascist administrations hands. And remember while spying on Americans by the various orgs is illegal, trading for information on them with other countries is not. Don't forget backups). It is horrible that it has come to this. One small point of light is that they are fools and can't shut up or be subtle. At least that has a chance to motivate more people to do something, which if it gets to the worst (and it is getting close) more people will actually resist (sadly a lot of people will have to realize that the point becomes not to win, but to impose costs/friction, and any wins are a bonus, which is a horrible realization in itself). Really hope this doesn't make things worse mentally btw.
I can only offer my solidarity and sympathies. If I were still living in the US, I’d probably have started taking firearms training and bought some by now.
Solidarity from TN
Today in relevant skeets:
::: spoiler transcript Skeet: If you can clock who this is meant to be instantly you are on the computer the perfect amount. You’re doing fine don’t even worry about it.
Quoted skeet: 'Why are high fertility people always so weird?' A weekend with the pronatalists
Image: Egghead Jr. and Miss Prissy from Looney Tunes Foghorn Leghorn shorts.
Word of advice to the press: Stop 👏 giving 👏 natalists 👏 free 👏 platforms 👏
Every 3 months! Every 3 months fucking hell. (I know because last time they came in the news I opened a tab with them in it, and their faces was the last I saw before my monitor exploded, like literally suddenly I sat in darkness.
All I've learned from the most recent round of publicity is that herself has a new hat. It looks stupid
A new hat let me check almost clicks wait a minute, I can't afford a new monitor, you are trying to trick me!
I got a spam message with a phishing link.... Via Github? Seriously? Are we really doing this?
Not a completely unusual comment.... From the URL it was very obvious that this was a phishing link though. Curiosity got the better of me. The site shows you a "cloudflare" captcha. OK, let's click the checkbox. The usual loading animation starts, then this is shown:
Yeah ok, right....
I'm actually a bit impressed with this, these captchas are so common, I didn't even really think about checking the box. But of course, that interaction means the browser will allow the site to add something to your clipboard.
But like.... Why distribute it via Github? I cannot think of a worse audience to try and con into "paste something random into your windows console". Am I just being naive here? Is this something common I somehow never experienced before?
Yeah that copy paste commands that give control over your pc shit is pretty nasty. Also over a year old at least. So it isnt specifically an attack at vibe coders. Not sure what the initial targets were but these usually try to target people not that knowledgeable in computer matters so lol that this now includes vibe coders.
LessWronger puts in the work and determines that LLMs can't spacially vizualize for shit, comments are like "well you're prompting it wrong" (paraphrased) as well as "why not pay experiences machinists to videotape what they're doing os their work can be automated"
The article itself is worth reading for some insights in the challenges of using current "AI" (LLMs) to work in the real world.
“why not pay experiences machinists to videotape what they’re doing os their work can be automated”
none of these people had a job in manufacturing, or even possibly any real job, it's called CNC and there are way better tools for making it work than stochastic parrot
e: ok at least op is a machinist
Interestingly, many of these models also score at or above the level of some human experts on visual reasoning benchmarks like MMMU. That which is easy to measure often doesn't correlate with real world usefulness.
benchmarks could be perhaps possibly fucked with? say it aint so!
My high level impression when reading the response is “someone who can parrot textbook knowledge but doesn’t know what they’re talking about”.
with corpus consisting of toy problems only, and with solutions that depending on field can kill whoever uses these
The fact this commenter doesn't mention the absolute fuckton of machining videos on Youtube tells me they're just talking out of their ass.
(not that forcing those into LLM slop would help but a hypothetical AGI would learn a lot)
Also
Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, recently worried about a world where only 30% of jobs become automated, leading to class tensions between the automated and non-automated. Instead, he predicts that nearly all jobs will be automated simultaneously, putting everyone "in the same boat."
Dario is delusional. We don't even have self driving cars outside of a very small, very expensive demo in SF
I've got to acknowledge the sheer guts it takes to look at arguably the most predictable consequence of the cyberpunk dystopia you're building and say "nah that won't happen because reasons."
Clearly self-driving teslas just need to mill their path through pedestrians
@gerikson I'd like to see him automating bed-turning a frail 90 year old in a nursing home so she doesn't get bed sores (ulcers—open wounds from lying on a creased sheet or just in the same position for too long). A 90yo with cognitive impairment who's scared of robots.
amazement at chatbots comes from demographic that did not binge watch how it's made in middle school
Noted sex pest Andrew Cuomo wants to run for Mayor in New York, and he might actually have a chance given the incumbent Democratic candidate is corruption magnet Eric Adams. Housing is a big issue in New York, so what's Cuomo's plan? Well, his plan is to use chat gpt to write his plan.
Angry New York Democrats were using the slogan DREAM meaning Don't Rank Eric Adams for Mayor. It was then amended to Don't Rank Eric or Andrew for Mayor, and amended again to Don't Rank Evil Andrew for Mayor.
eric adams should change his platform to “I’m not cuomo”
I dunno, how's the "I'm not Donald Trump" platform been working out so far?
Well. I don’t want adams to win
Infamous Dr Who "big name fan" Ian Levine is using generative AI to recreate lost episodes of the show. This got some mainstream press coverage and fans seem miffed.
"Inference Magazine," a substack written by a young feller named "Wiseman" who, in the most recent article, says "nuh-uh, you're the parrot" to the work of Dr. Bender and co (and the rest of humanity, by extension).
https://inferencemagazine.substack.com/
The hackernews thread is a real Bad Philosophy turkey shoot:
Orange site really is out here reinventing hard behaviorism.
"We can't directly observe internal states beyond our own subjectivity" -> Let's try to ignore them and see what we get" -> "We've developed a model that doesn't feature internal states as a meaningful element of cognition" -> "there are no internal states" -> "I know I'm a stochastic parrot but what are you?"
some parrots are more stochastic than others
These people need to sit through a college level class on linguistics or something like that. This is a demonstration of why STEM majors need general higher education.
New piece from Tante: These are not the same, arguing that the infrastrucure left after AI bubble's burst will leave infrastructure which will be actively damaging to a democratic society.
Its not the first piece I've seen about the bubble's potential aftermath (that goes to MAIHT3K), but it does give another perspective on it.
I can see tante's point. Besides AI datacenters being used for surveillance tech, I can also see LLM tech itself used nefariously post-bubble. Maybe maintaining an up-to-date LLM as a product is not viable, but a custom-trained model to snipe public online discourse around a crucial election could remain affordable for a wealthy fascist.
On the bright side, I am hoping for a brief period of powerful yet affordable gaming PCs thanks to retrofitted, slightly singed Blackwells.
I mean, what has crypto left over? All of that is only useful for sanctions busting and money laundering
New piece from Ed Zitron - a 44-minute read about OpenAI's threat to the entire tech industry
If OpenAI’s funding round with Softbank goes as planned, it’ll raise the equivalent of the entire GDP of Estonia — a fairly wealthy country itself, and one that’s also a member of Nato and the European Union. That alone should give you a sense of the truly insane scale of this.
so not only saltman is capable of burning enough power to be comparable to middle-sized euro country, he can also burn small euro country gdp
they are not serious people. damn if i only started grifting instead of getting socially useful skillset
Serious question: what are people's specific predictions for the coming VC bubble popping/crash/AI winter? (I've seen that prediction here before, and overall I agree, but I'm not sure about specifics...)
For example... I've seen speculation that giving up on the massive training runs could free up compute and cause costs to drop which the more streamlined and pragmatic GenAI companies could use to pivot to providing their "services" at sustainable rates (and the price of GPUs would drop to the relief of gamers everywhere). Alternatively, maybe the bubble bursting screws up the GPU producers and cloud service providers as well and the costs on compute and GPUs don't actually drop that much if any?
Maybe the bubble bursting makes management stop pushing stuff like vibe coding... but maybe enough programmers have gotten into the habit of using LLMs for boilerplate that it doesn't go away, and LLM tools and plugins persist to make code shittery.
I've repeated this prediction a bajillion times, but I suspect this bubble's discredited the idea of artificial intelligence, and expect it to quickly die once this bubble bursts.
Between the terabytes upon terabytes of digital mediocrity the slop-nami's given us, LLMs' countless and relentless failures in logic and reason, the large-scale enshittification of daily life their mere existence has enabled, and their power consumption singlehandedly accelerating the climate crisis, I feel that the public's come to view computers as inherently incapable of humanlike cognition/creativity, no matter how many gigawatts they consume or oceans they boil.
Expanding on this somewhat, I suspect AI as a concept will likely also come to be seen as an inherently fascist concept.
With the current bubble's link to esoteric fascism, the far-right's open adoration of slop, basically everything about OpenAI's Studio Ghibli slopgen, and God-knows-what-else, the public's got plenty of reason to treat use or support of AI as a severe indictment of someone's character in and of itself - a "tech asshole signifier", to quote Baldur Bjarnason.
And, of course, AI as a concept will probably come to be viewed as inherently anti-art/anti-artist as well - considering how badly the AI bubble's shafted artists, and artists specifically, that kinda goes without saying.
I have to agree. There are already at least two notable and high-profile failure stories with consequences that are going to stick around for years.
And sadly more to come. The first story is likely to continue to get a hands-off treatment in most US media for a few more years yet, but the second one is almost certainly going to generate Tacoma Narrows Bridge-level legends of failure and necessary restructuring once professionals are back in command. The kind of thing that is put into college engineering textbooks as a dire warning of what not to do.
Of course, it's up to us to keep these failures in the public spotlight and framed appropriately. The appropriate question is not, "how did the AI fail?" The appropriate question is, "how did someone abusively misapply stochastic algorithms?"
The Israeli military’s use of “AI” targeting systems as an accountability sink in service of a predetermined policy of ethnic cleansing.
Said policy enjoys broad Jewish-American support, so I'm not even sure why Israel needs the accountability sink
It's for the IOF, not USAmericans.
Doing genocide actually takes a toll on their minds no matter how much they profess to support it, so the chatbots allow them to offload their own guilt into the machine. So-called AI is an automated "just following orders" excuse generator.
I think you are much more optimistic than me about the general public's ability to intellectually understand fascism or think about copyright or give artists their appropriate credit. To most people that know about image gen, it's a fun toy: throw in some words and rapidly get pictures. The most I hope for is that AI image generation becomes unacceptable to use in professional or serious settings and it is relegated to a similar status as clip art.
I think we're going to see an ongoing level of AI-enabled crapification for coding and especially for spam. I'm guessing there's going to be enough money from the spam markets to support a level of continued development to keep up to date with new languages and whatever paradigms are in vogue, so vibe coding is probably going to stick around on some level, but I doubt we're going to see major pushes.
One thing that this has shown is how much of internet content "creation" and "communication" is done entirely for its own sake or to satisfy some kind of algorithm or metric. If nobody cares whether it actually gets read then it makes economic sense to automate the writing as much as possible, and apparently LLMs represent a "good enough" ability to do that for plausible deniability and staving off existential dread in the email mines.
I was reminded of Risky Business and how some of the cybersecurity is sometimes relevant to this sub, which reminded me they talked about this Cryptocurrency people being actually rubber hosed