The chances that a real Elon party signifigantly stealing votes from the Republicans to the point it causes an actual vote split is basically nil. The voter base is stupid, but not so stupid to hand a brand new party anything out of the gate.
Now, controlled opposition, is a foundation of the farce that is Russian democracy, and both DT and Elon are staunch admirers of Putin's system where its a mob masquerading as a government with total control
an important caveat about what happened with Russia, an enormous amount of their military was only on paper, because it had either been lied about, or stuff was stolen, from various positions on the pecking order.
It should also be noted that after a shitshow of year 1 and being unable to fight a combined arms mechanized war, they switched back to the brute force and massive casualty strategy, and for all intents and purposes, It worked, all Ukraine can do is try to hold territory and kill soldiers, but realistically due to Western cowardice and ratfuckery, the door closed a long time ago on Ukraine being able to dislodge Russia from its stolen territory.