ninthant

This is a message of doomerism but also optimism and hope for the future.

The Stick

The world has changed, and in my opinion if you are a Canadian living in the US you ought to start making plans to come back home or go elsewhere. Not for our sake, but for yours. Perhaps for people living in America there is be a sense of normalcy and complacency. Let's fire up r/murderedbywords with some clever remark and turn on Jon Stewart and get a good laugh in about how dumb Republicans are and how smart you are. Four more years and we'll get 'em. Oh I'm so embarrassed about what my country is doing, I'm so sorry.

But on the outside we are seeing a different picture. We see an America in a sharp decline and in hasty retreat from anything positive they may have once stood for. There is an unbridled fury at America for allying with murderous dictators, threatening and betraying its allies, and leveraging its economic strengths to bully for short-term gains. There is a smaller but not dissimilar rage against the American left for standing idly by while their country and it's democratic institutions are dismantled piece by piece.

There are worldwide boycotts against American goods and services, and these are picking up steam. The American media you consume may not reflect how just regular everyday Canadians are taking time to studiously check labels and reject things made in American or by American-owned companies. To cancel American-based subscriptions, to move to alternative services that don't funnel money into America. It is shockingly easy to do this thanks in part to globalization, when you realize that so many "American" products are actually made in China or China and the American bits are just some branding and repackaging.

And if you're a Canadian living in the US right now, this affects you in a practical way. Because you have enjoyed special treatment for decades, and you have become used to expecting that special treatment. Sure, when a Muslim or Mexican enters the US they may be treated with indignity and without human rights -- but not Canadians. You got the white glove treatment, and it was nice. You could pretend that the injustices and indignities weren't happening because they weren't happening to you. I know this because I was an ex-pat and this was me too.

But, no more special treatment for Canadians. Now Canadians who make clerical mistakes at the border are getting the same treatment that you'd expect someone from Haiti to get. No benefit of the doubt, no get-out-of-jail-free card, you get thrown in literal chains and held for weeks in barbaric for-profit prisons. Yes, even conventionally attractive, white Canadians. It can't happen to you, I'm sure part of your gut is telling you. But reality is telling you that it can.

As the world rejects and unites against the US, your status as an outsider will likely make you a target for the fury and hatred of the fascist administration and their many enthusiastic followers. The history of the world has shown that these types of governments have been very successful and manipulating their populations, and there is no reason to believe in American exceptionalism for this. When boycotts global cripple industry, will Americans blame their government for causing this, or will they bend to the propaganda and ally with the "strong man" who tells them they are blameless -- or will they blame the foreigners who are more directly hurting them? And YOU are a foreigner, the domestic face of what will be the next scapegoat.

Maybe my doomerism here is wrong. Maybe you can just coast for 4 years and things will magically get better. Maybe someone in America will act against what's happening. That sure would be nice, and I sincerely hope that's the case. But it's far from certain or even in my opinion likely. Your neighbours got a taste of this last time and got a clear roadmap for what would come, and decided that this is the America they wanted.

The Carrot

The case for Canada right now is a complete inversion of all this. Canadians are united with each other and with the broader world in a way that has never happened in my lifetime. There is an uplifting and deeply positive palpable energy to work more closely with Europe, Mexico, Australia, NZ, UK, and other allies around the world. We are building a new economy and a new future, and while uncertain it is also exciting with the possibilities.

Our country is poised for an election, widely expected to take place on Sunday. The current Prime Minister, Mark Carney, is a brilliant man with an amazing resume and has a sharp focus on getting results. He is both an insider who understands how business and the world economy functions, having led the Bank of Canada and Bank of England through crises as well as previously working at Goldman Sachs -- but also has an intellectual rejection of unrestricted free markets and the blind faith in markets that has led the western world into the tragic state of wealth inequality we find ourselves in now. Don't take my word for it, read his book, and I expect you to be as amazed as I am about how unique the opportunity is today with a man like this leading our country. And polls indicate that he will handily win this election.

But the country is bigger than one person and one party, and the likely outcome of this election will have further consequences. Canada's leading leftist party which has stagnated over the past decade will likely go up for leadership review post-election, and by holding a new leadership contest in this environment of unholy rage and optimism I have real faith that we have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to nominate a leftist of the likes of Tommy Douglas, or Jack Layton, or Bernie Sanders, or a firebrand like Jasmine Crockett or AOC or Charlie Angus. The country is hungry for this in a way that we never have been before.

And Canada will also reject the smarmy MAGA weasel who leads Canada's Conservative Party, because thanks to the threats pointed at us by America even most of our right wing has seen the consequences of going down the same path. This gives that party also an opportunity to select a new leader who can represent the conservative vision of Canada going forward. They can do some reflection and find someone who has inner strength, intelligence and experience, who doesn't get pleasure from punching down on vulnerable minorities, and who doesn't huff American propaganda. Because we all deserve this too.

You don't have to take my word for this. These are my predictions and you can see them play out or not in the coming weeks and months.

Canada's economy has been weakened tremendously by the trade war, there's no downplaying that. As the old proverb/curse says: may you live in interesting times. And the interesting times are here. But with upheaval there is opportunity. Because ending our dependence on America means that we must take some difficult steps to reorganize our way of doing things. It has been easy and convenient to ship our raw materials to the US for them to process in their industries, because the wages and taxes were lower and the regulations less stringent. The inertia from this export-oriented industry was significant, as any disruption would harm workers and companies involved with only an uncertain future benefit.

But now that disruption has arrived and we have no choice but to act, and we are acting. Canada has a tremendous availability of energy and raw materials and an educated population-- and we need new industries to leverage them. We need new retailers to distribute and sell them. We need new importers and exporters to get products to and from our new trading partners. We need new defense contractors, new tradespeople, new media producers, new goddamn everything.

And speaking specifically to my technically inclined friends, we also need non-US versions of the dominant American platforms. The network effect has long kept upstarts from being successful, so this is a likely-rare opportunity to disrupt incumbents such as YouTube, Reddit, Facebook, X, WhatsApp, Visa/Mastercard, Google, Apple, Netflix, and more. Because it's not just Canada who want this -- the services you build will also be welcomed in Europe and beyond. So all that expertise you developed working for these massive American companies and their billionaires to get even richer -- you can use those to found your own companies here or elsewhere abroad.

So this is not a doomerism future, not for us. Our elbows are up, we are fighting for ourselves and for the world. And you, my Canadian ex-pat friends, have an opportunity to be part of that.

I get an impression that when hearing an accusation of someone being "fascist", some people interpret this is simply a bad word. Like we're kids on a playground, and one kid doesn't like that other kid after sand got in our eyes so they call him a poopyhead. "Ooh, Singh called America's President a fascist, how scandalous! Can you believe he said that?" "Oh, the long haired dude protesting outside the Tesla showroom has a sign that says Musk is a fascist? Such a hysterical drama queen. Kids are so naive."

This idea that fascist is a bad word is not the worst possible interpretation -- fascists were pretty bad, after all. Growing up we studied WWII and the rise of fascism in Europe, the horrors they inflicted on millions of people and the scars they left on the world, lots of bad there. The genocide they inflicted was bad, and the fascists did that because they were racist which is also bad, and so they were all around pretty bad. All of this is true. Cool dudes like Indiana Jones punched those silly nazis in the face, because he was the hero and the nazis were the bad guys who wanted to do bad things.

But this interpretation of what fascist means -- to simply conflate fascists with "bad people we really don't like" is a serious failing to learn from history. Because one thing that gets missed from the history books we read was is why was fascism. (Or, it was there and it never sunk in.) Sure, we covered the societal dissatisfaction emerging from the aftermath of WWI, but that doesn't really get to why the outcome of that was fascism. The people back then could have responded any number of ways, why did that fascism take hold?

What we failed to internalize was that the fascism of the 1930s was probably a pretty fun time for the people participating in it. It would have provided a sense of community, a nationally unified response to what could reasonably be seen as a country in decline. The fascist leaders told their people that their race and their nationality were special, and gave them easy answers and scapegoats to explain away all the problems of a complex and changing world -- this was probably reassuring. The people were told their future would be full of riches, and that the world was filled with villains and that the spoils the great leader would provide would be theirs for the taking -- this was probably inspiring. When the propagandists told them that what they were doing was good and right, and the scapegoat was up to no good, it was probably pretty neat that everyone all had the same take.

The grandiose rallies where they gathered to chant mantras and demonstrate their loyalty would have been engaging community events with audio and visual stimulation that got the blood pumping. You and your neighbours (your true neighbours, not the evil opposition lurking just behind every corner) were all in on this bold adventure together, you were working together with a common goal. You all had the same answer to the problems, there we no debates or confusion about what the truth was. The truth was what the leader said, and everyone who was anyone repeated it -- or they wouldn't be anyone anymore. No complexities, no thinking required. Young men with too much testosterone in their veins probably had a grand time beating up whoever the great leader said to scapegoat that week to help explain all the problems in their lives and to quiet their doubts.

Because what we missed and didn't sink it's way into our souls is that the Germans and Italians in those times were just people. They were farmers and factory workers and weavers and students and salespeople and scientists and teachers and tailors and bakers and longshoremen and everything in between. They were normal people, with the exact same ape brains we still have today. That when we read the pages of history we are not just reading about a record of things that happened, we are reading a script about what people do and events that could easily happen again. That we are not exceptional and our cultural differences with the people we are reading about in history books is dwarfed by the fact that we are the same people now that they were then.

So when we say fascist, it's not simply an insult. It's a cry of desperate warning, to sound an alarm that we have seen this before. We seen how this poison affects people and we have seen how it goes from here. We see it not just in the 1930s Europe but even today in very similar forms in authoritarian China and Russia, and it's been successful there too. And yes indeed, fascism has reared it's ugly head in America -- and the American people are the same flesh and blood as the people who have succumbed to this before. People with an exceptionalist mindset think it can't be happening there. Their friends and neighbours can't be fascists because fascists are the bad guys and obviously their neighbours aren't the bad guys. Their neighbours would never stand by when we lose access to ballots and scapegoats get sent to gas chambers and everyone's kids march off to die in foolish wars -- only bad guys would do that. Our neighbours are normal people, not bad guys.

Because we read the textbooks and we passed our multiple choice tests, but we didn't learn. History is an account of what normal people did.

The border between Canada and the United States is nearly 9,000 km long without bayonets or guns.

A border where neighbours in British Columbia and Washington state, Ontario and Michigan, Quebec and Vermont, New Brunswick and Maine, cross back and forth.

A border that cuts right through a library and opera hall. What a powerful symbol of shared values and traditions.

It’s just a line between neighbours—no big deal.

But no more.

OTTAWA, March 17 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump must stop making “disrespectful” comments about Canada before the two countries can start serious talks about future ties, Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Monday.

"We've called out those comments. They're disrespectful, they're not helpful, and they ... will have to stop before we sit down and have a conversation about our broader partnership with the United States," Carney told reporters in London.

OK this title is a deliberately provocative statement, but I'll explain what I mean.

First of all, "Canada has deserved" does not imply that everyone should support PM Carney in the next election. When I talk about what Canadians deserve in this context, I mean that every political viewpoint deserves a good person to represent it. Not everyone thinks like me, and not everyone has the same objectives and preferences as me, and that's of course completely fine. Encouraged, even. If you're a dedicated lifelong leftist then yes indeed Carney is not the PM that represents your viewpoint and thus you deserve a leader who represents you. (That person's name is Charlie Angus, and the fact that he's stepping down makes me want to cry, but that's a digression).

And then for the second easy objection, obviously yes PM Carney is not a Conservative, he's the leader of the Liberal Party of Canada. Which is why my clickbait title said conservative, not Conservative. Carney does not fit amongst the likes of the reprobates in Canada's Conservative Party, or BC's Conservative Party, or Alberta's MAGA. Sorry if I got you all worked up about that.

But let's combine these ideas. It's great that people have diverse opinions and different preferences. In recent times, the excellent market-based economics of the now-failed "carbon tax" originated from within the CPC, the NDP and the left wing of the LPC brought us Pharmacare and dental care and decriminalized marijuana and much more. Going back a bit further, Paul Martin's stewardship of the economy produced a low national debt to GDP level that still lives on despite the deficits of Harper and Trudeau. These good policy ideas from across the political spectrum help enrich Canada, and they came about from having good people representing them earnestly. But to do this, we need the best people to represent the various viewpoints and perspectives that we share.

However Canada's conservatives have had -- and continue to have -- extremely poor-quality representation amongst their political parties. Let's contrast what the Conservatives bring to the table vs our new Prime Minister.

Mark Carney brings a level head, a combination of highly regarded public service and private sector experience, and a steady hand and plan to move our economy forward in these hard times that demand it. He understands economics and how markets function, and how a lack of competition and perverse incentives have led to a GDP with low levels of productivity. He wants to reallocate public sector resources to deliver more value to Canadians. He is not participating in the bullshit "culture war".

And now to the actual Conservatives we get. The leader of the CPC, Pierre "lil" Poilievre, is a hateful weasel of a man. Some compare him to Donald Trump but he's not even that -- he's what the kids these days call a "simp", a loser and wet paper bag who tries to act tough. PP embraces the culture war on the side of the anti-woke, going out of his way to try to hurt and bully vulnerable people so that he and his followers can feel strong by punching down. He wants to gut and slash services that are essential and beloved by Canadians, following in the footsteps of his American idols who are actively doing this today. PP is full of populist slogans that are full of hot air, and pettily torpedos market-based solutions like the Carbon Tax when it's politically expedient.

But it's not enough to say that PP is a bad guy. Fucking duh, he is. But he's also an incredibly poor-quality representative to the Canadians who have the entirely legitimate viewpoint that Canada needs to focus more on economic strength, to encourage entrepreneurial success, and so forth. The Canadians who have that political viewpoint deserve to have a leader who doesn't take marching orders from Republican talking point memos. Lowercase-C conservatives deserve better.

Frankly it should be an embarrassment to Canada's conservatives that they haven't nominated Carney or someone like him. Because it was always possible for them to do that. Drop the hate and bullying, replace the empty slogans with experience and real plans, drop the MAGA and American propaganda in the trash where it belongs. Lowercase-C conservatives deserve this -- not just for my sake but for their own sake.

As someone who has long held policy preferences that tend towards preferring market-oriented solutions, yet using sensible regulation to guide that invisible hand towards beneficial outcomes for the public, someone who is not full of spite towards vulnerable minorities -- I will enthusiastically support Mark Carney in the upcoming election. And if Carney wins and fails to live up to his promises, then I double-dog-dare the Conservatives to replace PP with someone they -- and we -- actually deserve.

We, the undersigned, population of Canada, call upon the Government of Canada to reconsider existing and future military contracts with the United States of America, especially the acquisition of new F-35s.

Petition by Charlie Angus

CBC and other outlets are discussing how the trade war is impacting aluminum cans. This highlights the perverse way we’ve structured our economy and how the trade war — while disruptive and causing short-term harm — will help drive longer term structural improvements.

On first glance it could be seen as unexpected that American levies on Canadian-made aluminium could impact our own beer cans. Pretty weird, right?

But no. We export the raw Canadian aluminum to the US, and then re-import it here. This makes sense for the companies involved— they can take advantage of the abysmal worker and environmental protections in the US and lower tax rates to maximize profit. And Canadians buy the beer anyhow; most (including me) not even knowing that it’s happening.

This system allows Americans and American companies to reap much of the value, despite not actually being strictly necessary. Their “value-add” is entirely from being awful, yet it works because of the structure of international trade.

So this system is really good for the US business interests, but is really bad for Canada. In order to boost our economy we lower the price of our dollar — making us poorer, our imports more expensive— in order to subsidize the exports of raw materials. And many of these raw materials are not renewable — once they are gone they are gone forever.

With the trade war we have a new opportunity. We can process our raw materials here. Yes, it may be a bit more expensive because we have labour laws and make our companies pay taxes and try not to ruin the environment quite as much.

But that’s okay — because the price is going up regardless. Deciding to make this structural change was a difficult pill to swallow because there will be people negatively impacted and this can be bad politics. But an idiot with no understanding of economics made this choice for us— a painful experience but also a blessing in disguise.

So yeah let’s process our own aluminum, our own oil, our own lumber. Process it here; capture the value here for Canadian businesses paying Canadian taxes and hiring skilled Canadian workers.

This will be a difficult period of adjustment, there will be hard times ahead. But someday soon those beer cans will be made in Canada. And on that day, we win.