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this post was submitted on 24 Aug 2024
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I’m amazed and delighted that Ukrainian troops have managed to occupy a part of Russia for so long. I thought they would be driven out in a day or two. This is pathetic (and hilarious). It reminds me of the early days of the war, when Russia thought they would take Kyiv in less than a week.
It just drives the point more that the Russian military is nowhere near the level the rest of the world thought it was.
Russia should have easily had air superiority within a day and been able to run through to Kyiv in a week. Especially with the build up on the border leading up to the invasion.
It also brings into question their overall nuclear capability. Like whether they're capable of MAD-level deterrence anymore. Even though it only takes a few nukes to destroy everything anyway, their massive stockpiles have likely deteriorated irreparably over the last 30-40 years and they've been lying to themselves in reports so no one had to take any blame.
If I was a corrupt Russian general, embezzling funds meant for nuclear deterrence upkeep would be a pretty safe bet since they are the weapons least likely to ever be used and thus least likely to be found out.
Add to that the old KBG mentality of separate realities. Official reports list X for propaganda purposes and for spies to get misinformation, and when the real numbers are needed it goes through a different process so they can make actual military plans.
It's my opinion that this historical Soviet system is why Russia's planned invasion of Ukraine was so far from reality. Topped with the personal corruption from oligarchs and generals as the cherry on top.